$BTC $ETH

It's been a long time since I've analyzed and summarized the market; writing articles and analyses has been inconsistent. Today, I'll briefly discuss it.

This bull market belongs to BTC and is also a bull market for memes, although there is a lack of a general altcoin season. BTC started rising in 2022, reaching its first peak in March 2024 and the second peak in January 2025. The trend is actually similar to March 2021 and December 2021, but the timing of the relative peaks has been delayed by one month. Altcoins are expected to reach their first peak in March 2024 and the second peak in December 2024. BTC rising to 109,000 is already impressive, and altcoins multiplying many times over is also impressive, but it is somewhat different from previous bull markets.

The favorable conditions since Trump took office, MicroStrategy's purchases, BlackRock's continuous accumulation, and interest rate cuts all point to a continuous influx of good news in the second half of 2024. The increasing inflow of funds has led to a rise in trading volume and capital inflow. Now, looking at BTC's trading volume, it's getting smaller and liquidity is decreasing. MicroStrategy's purchases are becoming less frequent. The U.S. stock market continues to print money and rise, and if the crypto market also had continuous money printing, it could also rise continuously, but this scenario is quite unlikely. Institutional holdings may not sell for six months to a year; will they be able to hold that long? Without trading and liquid assets, everything is worthless. Investments definitely need returns, and returns need to be converted into dollars. There are no waves that only rise without falling; they all have ups and downs. The bull market has ended, but the volatility has not.

Returning to the charts, BTC is currently the largest altcoin, with daily fluctuations of several thousand to tens of thousands of points, yet trading volume remains very low. Comparing the trading volume before January to now shows a clear trend: BTC's liquidity is getting worse. Currently, platform coins are rising rapidly, while retail investors are being harvested repeatedly. Funding is not infinite, and the increase in new users is also slowing down. The amount of capital being harvested is decreasing. In this larger trend, one can ignore the news and focus on trend trading, capturing tens of thousands of points of volatility, rather than being overly concerned about fluctuations of a few thousand points. BTC is currently following a rebound trend; it's good to keep an eye on the lower range around 9 or 9.2. Building positions around 88 is not a problem, as most can see the 7 range. Opening 30 trades in a month is not as effective as opening once a month to grasp the trend.