March 21 Midday Outlook #BTC走势分析

1. Bitcoin, expected range 85500-83000, expected trend rebound and decline;

2. Ethereum, expected range 2010-1930, expected trend rebound and decline;

3. Tonight at 11 PM, Trump and the US Secretary of Defense will speak (expected to discuss defense, not affecting the cryptocurrency sector)

【Market Analysis】

Last night after Trump spoke, there was no sharp decline, and both bulls and bears are at a stalemate, in a phase where bulls are afraid to push up and bears are afraid to sell off.

Today there are no news influences, tomorrow will again be a weekend with no news, so today is likely to react in advance, expecting a narrow range of sideways fluctuations, with back-and-forth movement.

【Medium-term Outlook】

1. This wave of the bull market in the cryptocurrency sector was driven up by Trump's cryptocurrency reserve plan, but the reserve plan has lost its imaginative space after Trump's executive order, so the bull market is already half dead.

2. The self-media discussions about the reserve plan before Trump's executive order pushed Bitcoin up to 95000, and the peak after signing the executive order at the cryptocurrency summit was around 91000, while last night's digital asset summit recording had no waves, with the peak at 86500, indicating that the influential peak is gradually declining;

3. The remaining favorable news is expected to have limited impact. On any given day, if it can be pushed close to 90,000, it would create a short-selling opportunity. Before that, it will be narrow fluctuations.

4. If the price is not high enough, there is no profit space for shorting; similarly, unless the US stock market crashes significantly, dragging Bitcoin and Ethereum down, there is no space for going long either.

Now we should expect a kind of 5000-point fluctuation sideways as seen in early February, while also guarding against decline. The sideways movement is due to the lack of positive or negative news in the cryptocurrency sector. The precaution against decline is to guard against a further downward valuation after the US stock market rebound ends, which could drag the cryptocurrency sector down;

Above 88000 is a shorting opportunity, around 75000 is a long opportunity.

5. Altcoins/Altcoin Spot, if a 30%-50% rebound from the decline seen in December is seen, it is recommended to liquidate, as there is no further chance for new highs.

Strategy —

Long low and short high at the edges of the drawn range.