Current Price: Around $84,000

Key Point Analysis:

Bitcoin has recently been fluctuating around $84,000, with significant volatility in both directions and tense market sentiment. Below are my views and suggestions from several aspects:

1. Key Points of Short-term Trend

1. Support and Resistance Levels

Support Level (the level where it won't fall):

$80,000: A psychological barrier; if it breaks below, it may accelerate the decline.

$78,000: Recent low; if it drops here, there may be funds looking to buy the dip.

Resistance Level (the level where it won't rise):

$85,000: Strong short-term resistance; if broken, it may surge towards $90,000.

$90,000: Near previous high; if broken, it may initiate a new round of increases.

2. Impact of News

Federal Reserve Policy: Recent speeches by Federal Reserve officials are the market focus. If they hint at "interest rate hikes" or "delaying rate cuts," Bitcoin may decline; if they mention "possibility of rate cuts," Bitcoin may rebound quickly.

3. Market Sentiment

The current market is in a state of "panic," but historical data shows that such times may be opportunities to buy in batches, though it is necessary to wait for the market to stabilize.

2. Operation Suggestions

1. Short-term

Bullish (buying up) conditions:

If Bitcoin stabilizes above $84,000 and breaks through $85,000, a small position can be taken to chase the rise, targeting $88,000-$90,000.

Stop Loss: Exit immediately if it drops below $83,000.

Bearish (selling down) conditions:

If Bitcoin falls below $80,000, a small position can be taken to short, targeting $78,000.

Stop Loss: Stop loss if it rises above $82,000.

2. Long-term

Buy in batches: If it drops to the $78,000-$80,000 range, consider buying in 3 batches (for example, buy each time it drops by $1,000), holding long-term with a target above $100,000.

Don't go all in: Avoid buying the entire amount at once to prevent getting stuck if it continues to decline.

3. Caution

Avoid high leverage: The volatility is too high now; using leverage over 3 times can easily lead to liquidation.

3. Possible Future Trends

Bullish Scenario:

If it breaks through $85,000 and the policy releases positive news, it may directly rise to $90,000, or even challenge $100,000.

Bearish Scenario:

If the Federal Reserve takes a hawkish stance or the U.S. stock market drops significantly, Bitcoin may fall below $80,000, or even retest $75,000.