This week, the NASDAQ RSI is close to 11 (a two-year low), and the S&P 500 is as oversold as during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in 2023 - the technicals have marked a "squat zone". More crazily, the trading volume of put options has surged by 33 million contracts, setting a new high since the panic of the 2020 pandemic, and even the "fear index" VIX has soared to 29.56, with bearish sentiment almost overflowing the screen.
History always rhymes: over the past two years, the NASDAQ has experienced two 15%+ pullbacks (July 24 / this time), both triggering violent rebounds after being oversold. Last night's CPI data was released, and tech stocks were the first to "jump the gun," with Tesla and Nvidia recovering more than 5% in a single day, which is a typical scenario of short covering. Currently, the NASDAQ at 17,000 points has erased all gains from Trump's election victory, and the selling pressure is gradually exhausting, with even Goldman Sachs hinting that CTA selling may end this week.
But be aware! A rebound is not a reversal - the S&P 500 is still struggling below the 2-year uptrend line, and the 200-day moving average (5737 points) remains a key resistance.
The technical situation of the US stock market suggests that we should see a technical rebound in the coming days, and the cryptocurrency market, which has been in sync with US stocks recently, also has opportunities for staged trading.