Recent Bitcoin Trend Analysis: Long and Short Game Amidst Severe Volatility
1. Short-term Price Trend
Since March, Bitcoin has experienced three rounds of severe fluctuations:
- March 3: Plummeted from $108,000 to $81,000 (daily -25%), over 170,000 people liquidated
- March 6: Briefly rebounded to $91,000 before continuing to fall
- March 10-11: Broke below the $80,000 mark, reaching a low of $76,500 (cumulative drop of 11% over the past 5 days)
2. Future Market Trend Direction
Short-term
Range oscillation between $77,000 - $82,000, focus on Federal Reserve interest rate cut signals and geopolitical easing
Long-term
Institutional divergence intensifies (MicroStrategy increases holdings vs ETF redemptions), clarity of regulatory framework determines direction
4. Operational Suggestions
🔴 Short-term: Strict stop-loss, pay attention to CPI/inflation data
🔵 Long-term: Gradual positioning, beware of contract risks
⚠️ Beware of policy failures and the recurrence of liquidity crises
