The CPI data at 8:30 PM tonight is indeed a key market barometer that will determine the short-term trends of the capital market. Considering the current market situation, let’s think:

1. Three impact paths of CPI data

Below expectations (positive): Inflation cools down, pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates decreases, and the market rebounds in the short term. BTC and tech stocks (Nasdaq) may see a corrective rebound.

In line with expectations (mildly positive): In the current market environment of extreme pessimism, even if it meets expectations, it may be interpreted as positive by the market, triggering capital inflow.

Above expectations (negative): Inflation remains stubborn, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may tighten further, US Treasury yields rise, risk assets come under additional pressure, and BTC may drop to deeper support levels (65000 or even lower).

2. Key technical levels and market games

BTC key support: 80000 (psychological level), 75000 (short-term bullish defense line), 65000 (target level for big shark formation).

BTC key resistance: 85000 (short-term resistance), 92000 (strong resistance level, breaking through it can confirm a trend reversal).

Nasdaq: Whether the support near 14000 can hold will be crucial.

3. Giant whales increase positions by 280 million USD, is it worth following?

Giant whales often have stronger information and capital advantages, making their directional choices noteworthy.

However, the market's capital structure is complex; whales may also be hedging or setting traps, so it is not advisable to follow blindly.

Prudent strategy: Observe the market's first reaction 5-15 minutes after the CPI data is released, and wait for signal confirmation before acting.

4. Trading strategy recommendations

Short-term traders: After the CPI is released, pay attention to whether BTC can stabilize at key support (80000 or 75000) before considering entry.

Medium to long-term investors: If the CPI is below expectations and market sentiment recovers, a pullback presents an opportunity, and positions can be built in batches.

Risk control: Closely monitor US Treasury yields and the US dollar index; if the CPI is below expectations but the dollar index remains strong, it indicates that the market's confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is still insufficient, hence caution is advised.

Tonight at 8:30 PM, we will see the outcome, and the market will face a crucial choice!#CPI数据来袭 #btc