The market is currently showing a bottoming and rebound state, and a rebound has already occurred. The current trading range is fluctuating between 77655 and 83582. The current trading volume shows a stepwise contraction, with the trading volume in the past hour reduced by 15%-20% compared to the previous period. The characteristics of simultaneous decline in volume and price are significant, and market trading activity has dropped to a 24-hour low. The capital participation index shows that the main funds are in a net outflow state. From a technical indicator perspective, MACD shows a long-short contest, with both lines continuously operating below the zero axis. The histogram's negative value area has expanded for three consecutive periods, and the difference between the fast and slow lines has exaggerated to -280, indicating that bearish momentum holds an absolute advantage, with no divergence signals appearing. There are no signs of a reversal in the downward trend, and the KDJ three lines are in a bearish arrangement (K: 38 D: 42 J: 32). The J value has remained below the oversold level for six consecutive hours, indicating a need for technical repair. The distance between the three lines has narrowed to 10 basis points, and a directional choice window may enter in the short term.

Key point layout: the support level to watch below is 76818, which is the upper edge of the dense chip area on March 9. The core resistance level is 84200, with the previous high neckline located at the EMA120 intersection area. The day’s fluctuation center is the psychological threshold of 80000. Therefore, our short positions can be arranged around 83000-83500. Today, it is important to be cautious about the long-short tug-of-war at the $78,000 level, which has gathered nearly $230 million in option contracts. If the trading volume continues to shrink below $1.5 billion per hour, it could trigger liquidity trap risks. Additionally, the focus on news data is the countdown to the release of the US March CPI data, which is in a 72-hour countdown. CME Bitcoin futures open interest has sharply decreased by 12%, reflecting institutional cautious sentiment.