Will $SOL fall into a death spiral? This question cannot be answered definitively; we can analyze from several perspectives:
Impact of Unlock Events
Although about 11.2 million SOL tokens will be unlocked, valued at approximately $2 billion, this does not mean the market will crash immediately. Early investors may choose to sell in batches rather than dumping all at once. Additionally, institutions like Galaxy Digital may prefer to hold long-term rather than rush to cash out. The market maker Wintermute has already prepared $40 million worth of SOL, indicating that the market is ready for potential volatility, which may alleviate some selling pressure.
Current Market Situation
Currently, the price of SOL fluctuates between $130 and $142. Although it has dropped 30% over the past month, there has been no panic selling in the market. This suggests that the negative impact of the unlock may have been partially digested, and the market still has a certain level of support.
Technical and Ecological Development
In 2025, Solana will launch the Firedancer client, aiming to significantly enhance network performance, which may attract more developers and funding into the ecosystem. Additionally, the probability of SOL ETF approval is rising, and if realized, it will bring a substantial amount of institutional funds, providing support for the price.
Despite facing unlocking pressures, the positive factors on the market and technical side may offset some of the negative impacts.
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