Big Pie’s epic black swan? It turns out to be a huge conspiracy!!!
Conspiracy theories with reason:
Last time, there was a sharp pullback before and after the ETF of Bitcoin was approved.
Because Grayscale's holdings are too concentrated and it has been giving profits to major ETFs, Grayscale has been selling.
So why is BlackRock keeping selling this time?
Who should we give way to? Who should we pick up bargain chips?
Of course it is the Trump Organization!!
The reason is very simple. Trump is not only the president, he is also a businessman. So if the big pie reserve is to be passed, and Trump changes his tone, he must have bargaining chips in his hand!
There must be a lot of henchmen in the gang collecting chips for him now!
Then before selling the goods, BlackRock's main short order had already been placed!
This sounds reasonable!!!
He currently holds 578,000 shares, so how many shares should he sell? Let's see how many shares he sells tonight.
2) MicroStrategy is also a behemoth, it holds 500,000 shares, with an average price of $65,000, so will this be to liquidate it? ?
The core of MicroStrategy's model lies in the circular lending investment model, which raises funds by issuing convertible bonds with a 0% interest rate to buy big cakes, and then issues new shares at a premium to buy big cakes again!
Although he is now in debt of 8.2 billion dollars, he now has 500,000 pie charts (80,000 yuan per piece) and his assets are worth 40 billion dollars. If converted into leverage, it is less than 20%!
The most important thing is that most of the debt will mature in 2028 or later!
In addition, the boss Saylor has 46.8% of the decision-making power of the company. He is a firm holder of Bitcoin! So it is difficult to liquidate MicroStrategy! Saylor himself said that unless Bitcoin falls to $1, it is impossible to liquidate him!
3) So what do you think about the big cake reserve? Is it impossible to pass it? ? ? ?
The process of passing a bill is still very cumbersome.
1. The House of Representatives reviews and votes, and after approval, the House of Representatives votes en masse;
2. The Senate reviews and votes on the bill, and after it is passed, the Senate votes en masse;
3. Governor’s signature.
What is the current situation of passing?
1) 25 states proposed, 4 states rejected
2) Utah is now well ahead of the Senate and will go to the full Senate for a vote. The result is expected to be announced in March! The probability of passing at this stage is very high.
Why is this? Let's look at the above. BlackRock opened a short position to sell spot stocks, and the Trump Organization bought chips at a low price! The March reserve bill was passed! How interesting!
4) A 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico took effect on March 4, and he said goods from China would be subject to an additional 10% tariff. He also promised this week to impose a 25% tariff on goods from the European Union, which is a negative in advance.
5) The SEC dropped charges against various cryptocurrencies.
Favorable Crypto Regulatory Policy: We are in the early stages of a major shift in attitudes toward cryptocurrencies in Washington, D.C. In the past few weeks alone, we have seen the SEC drop high-profile lawsuits against companies like Coinbase, and lawmakers have reached consensus around pro-cryptocurrency bills related to stablecoins and market structure. These developments will enable cryptocurrencies to enter the mainstream and reshape the financial landscape in the coming years.
Institutional Adoption: Institutions, governments, and corporations are buying Bitcoin in droves. So far this year, investors have poured $4.3 billion into Bitcoin ETFs. We expect this number to reach $50 billion by the end of the year, with hundreds of billions more to come in the coming years.
Stablecoins: Stablecoin assets under management have reached an all-time high of $220 billion, up nearly 50% over the past year. But we think this is just the beginning. As stablecoin legislation advances in Congress, the stablecoin market could surge to $1 trillion by 2027.
The rebirth of decentralized finance and the rise of tokenization: Decentralized financial applications are seeing renewed interest, with growing activity in areas such as lending, trading, prediction markets, and derivatives. At the same time, the scale of assets under management for tokenized real-world assets is hitting new all-time highs every day.
6) The decline in 10-year Treasury bond yields is conducive to investment in risky markets.
The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen about 32 basis points, or 0.32 percentage points, as investors worry that Trump's tariff-focused trade agenda could push up inflation and slow growth, so there is reason to believe that a rate cut will come early!
7) PCE data at 21:30 tonight
In the past, the data of Pce+GDP+CPI could determine the tone of interest rate hikes and cuts. Now it is not certain, but the market will also have expectations of a rebound.
Tonight's PCE data is positive, so the expectation of rate cut will increase in May swap expectations!
At present, institutions are shipping, and the market will be priced soon. I personally think that the price range of Bitcoin is 72,000-75,000. It will not be lower than this position!
The corresponding pricing range for concubines is 1850-1980, and it is unlikely to be lower than this position! There is no need to panic and scare yourself!
I don’t dare to buy when the price drops, and I try to buy when the price rises sharply. If I do, I will be trapped. Can you tell me how to get the result?
The above analysis does not constitute any investment advice and is only used as a personal record!