Refined Position Management Strategy:
One, Capital Allocation Framework
1. Core Position (50%)
- $500 for trend positions, layout key support levels in three tiers:
- First tier ($2250-$2300): Invest 30% ($150), set stop-loss at $2200^3^6
- Second tier ($2150-$2200): Add 40% ($200), stop-loss at $2100^4^6
- Third tier (strong support at $2000): Invest 30% ($150), stop-loss at $1950^4
- *Technical Basis*: $2000 is the starting point for the 2024 bull market, on-chain data shows a dense area of whale holding costs^4
2. Flexible Position (30%)
- $300 for swing trading, dynamically adjust based on the following signals:
- Breakthrough signal: Daily closing price stabilizes above $2430, chase up $100, target $2600-$2700^3^4
- Oversold Rebound: Enter $50 when RSI<30, take profits at 3-5% rebound^4^6
- Event-driven: Retain $100 for arbitrage before March 11 Cancun upgrade, if a "sell the fact" drop occurs after the upgrade, buy the dip^1^3
3. Hedge Position (20%)
- $200 for risk hedging:
- Options Protection: Buy put options with a strike price of $2200 (cost about 5-8% of principal)^3^6
- Cross-Market Hedge: When ETH/BTC exchange rate <0.028, use $50 to long ETH while shorting BTC^1^4
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Two, Step-by-Step Operational Details
Phase One: Consolidation Period (February 27 - March 10)
1. Grid Trading ($150)
- Set a consolidation range of $2300-$2430, divide into 5 layers of grid (each layer $30 price difference)
- Invest $30 per layer, execute immediately upon trigger, automatically take profit at 5% for single layers^1^6
- Pause replenishment when breaking below $2300, wait for daily MACD golden cross signal^3
2. Key Node Operations
- Before March 1 PCE data: Reduce positions to 50%, if the data stabilizes above $2350 after publication, replenish^1^6
- March 5th Federal Reserve meeting: Retain 30% cash to cope with volatility spikes^3
Phase Two: Trend Period (March 11 - April 15)
1. Breakthrough Confirmation
- Pyramid adding positions after breaking through $2500:
- Invest $100 upon breakout
- Replenish $50 at a pullback to $2450
- Target reference Fibonacci extension levels of $2745/$3000^4^6
2. Arbitrage after Upgrade
- If gas fees decrease after the Cancun upgrade, allocate $50 to Layer 2 tokens like Arbitrum, taking advantage of ecological migration bonuses^1^4
Phase Three: Final Phase (April 15 - May 27)
1. Quarterly Delivery Hedge
- Close 50% of derivative positions before April 13, switch to spot positions to avoid delivery volatility^6
- If the price breaks through $3000, initiate a tiered profit-taking:
- Take profit 30% at $3050
- Take profit 50% at $3200
- Retain 20% to speculate on the $3400 previous high^1^4
Three, Risk Control Execution Standards
Risk Type Trigger Conditions Response Measures Reference Basis
Trend Reversal 4-hour volume breaks below $2250 Clear 80% of positions, retain 20% core position ^3^6
Leverage Liquidation Perpetual contract funding rate >0.1% Close all leveraged positions, switch to spot trading ^6^7
Liquidity Crisis Exchange ETH holdings >15% Reduce positions to 30%, prioritize exiting altcoin positions ^4^8
Black Swan Event Single-day drop >15% Activate options hedge, pause all position building ^3^6
Four, Optimize Yield-Risk Ratio
1. Kelly Formula Calculation
- Based on historical win rate (55%) and profit-loss ratio (2:1), optimal single position = (0.55*2 - 0.45)/2 = 27.5%
- Actual execution controlled within 20%^7
2. Dynamic Rebalancing
- Weekly assessment of holdings:
- Withdraw 10% profit when profits >20%
- Pause opening new positions when losses >10%
- Adjust hedge ratio when ETH/BTC exchange rate changes >3%^1^4
> Execution Points: Review 4-hour TD sequences and volume distribution daily. When three consecutive volume-decreasing doji candles appear, initiate defensive strategies. It is recommended to set price alerts on TradingView; trigger risk control when key levels deviate by more than 2%^3^6.
