From deepseek.

As of February 18, 2025, whether the Bitcoin bull market continues needs to be analyzed in conjunction with current market dynamics and external conditions. Here are the key information points:

### 1. **Technical Support and Market Sentiment**

- **200-Week Moving Average Trend**: Bitcoin's 200-week simple moving average (SMA) currently stands at $44,200, well below the current price range ($96,000 to $110,000). Historical patterns show that bull markets typically end after breaking the previous cycle's high before the 200-week moving average (for example, the 2021 bull market ended when the average reached the 2017 high of $19,000), while the current average remains in an upward trend and has yet to touch the previous peak of $69,000, indicating continued bullish potential.

- **Options Market Data**: There is strong demand for long-term bullish options on the Deribit platform, with open interest for call options at a $120,000 strike price exceeding $1.8 billion, reflecting market expectations for price increases.

### 2. **Policy and Macroeconomic Environment**

- **US Policy Shift**: The Trump administration promoted crypto-friendly policies, including the repeal of SAB 121, which restricted institutional custody of crypto assets, and plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Additionally, the number of lawmakers supporting the crypto industry in the US Congress has increased, significantly improving the policy environment.

- **Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Risk Appetite**: The Federal Reserve and other major economies may further cut interest rates in 2025, stimulating capital inflow to risk assets, including the crypto market. Invesco notes that the current market environment leans towards a "risk appetite year," which could benefit Bitcoin as a highly volatile asset.

### 3. **Industry Ecology and Innovation Drivers**

- **ETFs and Institutional Participation**: The US spot Bitcoin ETF, launched in 2024, has seen total assets approach the level of gold ETFs ($101.8 billion), lowering the entry threshold for retail investors and continuously attracting capital inflow.

- **Cross-Chain Interoperability and RWA Development**: Cross-chain technologies (such as LayerZero, Superposition) and on-chain integration of Real World Assets (RWA), like Plume Network's $4.5 billion asset commitment, enhance DeFi liquidity and practicality, further solidifying market confidence.

### 4. **Potential Risks and Adjustment Signals**

- **Macroeconomic Uncertainty**: Inflationary pressures, a strong US dollar index (DXY), and rising treasury yields may suppress market uptrends. Recent Bitcoin price fluctuations indicate that macroeconomic factors could still trigger short-term corrections.

- **Signs of Market Overheating**: Some AI-related tokens (like $VIRTUAL, $AI16Z) and Meme coins (like FARTCOIN) have seen significant declines, warranting caution regarding the impact of speculative bubbles bursting on overall market sentiment.

### 5. **Long-Term Cycles and Historical Patterns**

- **Halving Effect**: The Bitcoin halving event in 2024 typically drives price increases one year later (in 2025). Historical data shows that peaks in post-halving cycles often occur the following year; for example, following the 2020 halving, the price reached $69,000 in 2021.

- **Institutional Forecast Discrepancy**: Institutions like Bernstein and Invesco have a wide range of price predictions for Bitcoin in 2025 ($40,000 to $280,000). Some analysts believe that $150,000 to $225,000 is a reasonable target, but excessive optimistic expectations should be cautioned against.

### Conclusion: The bull market is still on, but caution is needed

In summary, the Bitcoin bull market is currently supported by factors including policy improvement, technological innovation, and institutional capital inflow, but close attention must be paid to macroeconomic fluctuations and the risk of market overheating. If the external environment stabilizes, prices may break through the current range (e.g., $120,000 options target), potentially challenging higher levels; however, if inflation or regulatory pressures intensify, short-term corrections may be hard to avoid. Investors are advised to consider their own risk appetite and dynamically track policy and market signals.