1: Understanding of Limitations:

2024/12/25 I realized a problem, that after working hard for a long time, the returns don't seem significant. I've looked at many projects and written many research reports—dozens of them—but I vaguely feel that I'm missing the point. I showed my research report to an expert, and he said what I wrote was meaningless, just following the conventional method blindly. I gradually realized that my effort in researching projects and writing SOPs may be more of ineffective labor.

Currently, I focus more on studying projects regarding financing, and then deduce the rules for the next project’s token issuance based on the rules of similar projects that have already issued tokens. However, these rules don't really have any advantages; everyone can access them, and it just requires gathering more information. I've been immersed in this kind of research, looking at rules, understanding rules, analyzing project data, and executing SOPs, but I've gradually come to realize that these things are not the most crucial aspects.

It's like the research on Eclipse; my approach is similar to previous public chain projects, summarizing commonalities using similar rules. However, P was early in engaging with ASC and comfortably acquired chips. ASC, as an important NFT in the Eclipse ecosystem, is likely to have significant airdrop weight; even if there is no airdrop for the NFT, it remains very comfortable.

From this project, I discovered two constraints or limitations that trouble me:
The first is at the information level; I'm very curious about how these people know this information. Why do I only find out after others have released it? Why can't I get ahead? What is the gap between me and these people? This is the information gap.
The second is at the judgment level; the same information is presented to me and others, but my judgment remains limited to that research area. Others can determine that ASC is one of the airdrop weights for Eclipse. I can't grasp what the project party wants or what they are expressing; I merely use a mechanical method to apply rules, which is also my limitation.

After discussing with a senior over the past few days, he inspired me with the idea that I lack some macro perspective.
For example, who are the angel investors of the project party? What does their network look like? Before engaging in an airdrop project, it's essential to assess whether it's worth focusing energy on the airdrop for the same amount of time, or if there are higher yield opportunities elsewhere. If a prominent investor backs a project, did they retweet it on Twitter? This is also critical information.
Identify what this project lacks and then supplement it. For instance, at that time, zk didn't lack transactions (tx), but its Total Value Locked (TVL) was low, so addressing the TVL was a good strategy. It’s essential to ascertain what the project lacks and see if there is a native application in this public chain ecosystem that can drive growth, like GMX in the Arbitrum ecosystem. These aspects may be more important than studying rules and formulating strategies. Allocating energy here yields a better input-output ratio.

2: Where are my limitations?

Through communication and reflection, I realized I've been focusing too heavily on less important areas. The core issue lies in a lack of direction and judgment. It’s a misunderstanding of effort and a lack of deep understanding of the 2/8 principle.
Effort is not wrong, but it must align with the right direction. At the same time, time should be spent in areas that are verifiable and yield high output.
Additionally, I need to learn to build my own intelligence network, avoid working in isolation, and directly find the most professional individuals to learn from. It’s essential to cultivate a sense of trends rather than fixating on the details of a specific project.

3: Breaking through limitations regarding solutions.

1: First, I should pay more attention to people and the capital network.
Regarding information, I should observe the interactions between the core team and investors of this project. What have these team members done in the past? Where have they worked? Do investors mention and retweet this project on Twitter?
Also, see what this project lacks: is it TVL, wallet addresses, or something else? This data needs to be compared, and I should also listen to this project’s space or meetings.
In simple terms, I should not blindly deduce based on previous rules; instead, I should consider what this project needs, what they promote on social platforms, and what they value.

2: Reunderstanding effort in the cryptocurrency space.
Some people can earn money without doing much because they grasp the 'primary contradiction.' The primary contradiction is the key factor that plays a critical role in determining the development of this project, and this needs to be identified.
In the cryptocurrency space, the primary contradiction determining whether one can make money is:
The direction of funds + where the speculative sentiment is.
The speed of obtaining effective information + timely execution.

Distinguishing what constitutes effective information is crucial; it refers to whether this information can play a key role in making money. Also, consider who the underlying funds are, who the investors are, and who is endorsing the project. This information is far more important than the fundamentals. Focusing on this information is more effective than conducting bottom-up research on project rules and writing SOPs.

Those who invest less and earn more must have captured those critical 20% of the information, so I need to think about what this 20% is and who has access to this information. I need to consider:
Who or which community was the first to release this information? It's essential to trace back to find the original source of the message.
Can I get on the whitelist? Why didn't I get it before?
What are the reasons behind those who made money without research? What led them to join? It's important to trace back and question.
I need to identify which 80% of projects are not worth pursuing and focus my energy on the other 20% that have the most potential.

3: With the same amount of time, I need to think about how to allocate time to areas that can generate higher value.
In the past, I resisted projects with short cycles. Now, I need to stay open and pay more attention to 'short cycle, high return' projects. As long as you look for them, they will be available. Projects of this type test the quality of information sources.
I should pay moderate attention to long-term projects and not invest all my energy in them, as I risk incurring opportunity costs; with the same amount of time, I could yield higher returns elsewhere.

4: Building my own information network.
I need to converse directly with people like P and Fengmi, avoiding working in isolation. I must realize that my efficiency in writing research reports alone is certainly not as high as collaborating with information sources.

5: Cultivating a sense of trends rather than fixating on the details of a specific project.
I must focus on the big picture, clarify the major trends, and not get distracted by whether a particular project will issue tokens or how the rules are set up. Instead, I should first assess how the entire market can accelerate this project.

6: Enhancing sensitivity to opportunities.
Ask more why, summarize others' successes, and understand why they can see and make money.
Record all operations related to money and conduct regular reviews.

7: Before making an effort, first find the right direction.
I should prioritize improving my ability to acquire intelligence and judgment. These two are the most important.
Also, look at the project’s investors, their networks, who is endorsing it, and who is promoting it.

Recently, I've been listening to (100 Lectures on Decision Algorithms). There's a point about the illusion of compound interest: that progressing by 0.05% daily is an ideal state. If the direction is wrong, the results will be even more outrageous. Before pouring all my energy into a project, it's more crucial to find a direction worth striving for.

The most important point is: if you want to make money, effort is not the most important thing; the direction and method of that effort are what truly matter. It's essential to judge whether something is worth the effort, as that is the most crucial aspect.