$BTC $SOL
Weekly BTC/USD Analysis: The Storm Before the Crash?
The BTC/USD weekly chart presents critical reflections that should not be overlooked, especially given the euphoric sentiment driving prices to an all-time high (ATH) around $108K. While bulls dominate the market narrative, a deeper dive into technical indicators and market structure suggests caution.
Potential Double Top Formation:
The price action suggests the completion of a double top formation at the $108K zone. Historically, such patterns often indicate a trend reversal, especially when coupled with bearish divergences.
Bearish Divergences:
MACD: The MACD histogram is waning, with a clear bearish divergence forming against the price. While the price printed higher highs, the MACD is trending downward, signaling momentum loss. This divergence often precedes substantial corrections.
RSI: The RSI shows similar behavior, diverging from the price. Despite the ATH, RSI fails to confirm the bullish momentum, reinforcing the narrative of an overheated market.
Unretested Support Zone (Rectangular Area): The highlighted rectangle between $48K and $65K is an untested demand zone. This area represents a potential target for a correction, as market makers may seek liquidity and accumulate at discounted prices. Institutions and whales often exploit such scenarios to shake out weak hands.
Macro Factors & Institutional Influence:
The speculative link between pro-BTC institutions and Trump's return to power raises concerns about strategic price manipulation. With BTC confiscated from Silk Road still in the government's possession, there's a strong incentive to push prices lower for redistribution. A sell-off could trigger cascading liquidations, paving the way for a deeper retracement.
Market Sentiment & FOMO: The Solana rally, driven by Trump-themed meme coins, highlights irrational exuberance. Such FOMO-fueled rallies are often unsustainable and indicative of a nearing bubble burst. The liquidation of over-leveraged long positions could exacerbate the impending correction.
