#“圣诞老人行情”再现
Regarding ETFs, in the past 4 trading days, funds from the US spot BTC ETF have continued to flow out, reaching $1.51 billion. During this period, the largest outflow was from FBTC, totaling $510 million; followed by ARKB, which saw an inflow of $286 million.
K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde stated that based on data from the past three cycles, the average duration for Bitcoin from its first all-time high to its last all-time high in each cycle is 318 days. Since Bitcoin reached its first all-time high in the current cycle on March 5, if the average duration of previous cycles is repeated, investors might see Bitcoin reach a new high for this cycle on January 17, 2025.
On-chain, there has been a large short-term influx of Bitcoin into exchanges, which will exert selling pressure on the market, while USDT has recently continued to flow out of exchanges, indicating insufficient short-term demand in the market.
In terms of market trends, Bitcoin's low-volume rebound is not a healthy trend, as overall market demand is insufficient. The future market should observe volume conditions; if low volume continues, maintaining the rebound trend will be difficult. Today, US markets are closed, resulting in minimal market fluctuations; the true supply and demand situation will only be revealed once the US markets reopen. It is still recommended to take profits gradually after a rebound.
