In this world, all are here for profit; in this world, all are here for benefits! Hello everyone, I'm your friend Lao Cui, focusing on analyzing digital currency market trends, striving to convey the most valuable market information to cryptocurrency enthusiasts. I welcome your attention and likes, and I reject any market smoke screens.
After discussing Bitcoin and Ethereum with everyone, many friends are also paying attention to some smaller cryptocurrencies. Personally, Lao Cui is quite resistant to this type of cryptocurrency, but it turns out that most people are focused on speculating on small coins, so today I'll take the time to talk about it with everyone. Overall, the trend is basically in line with Bitcoin; it’s just that the declines in small cryptocurrencies are more significant due to their smaller market cap. Especially in the cryptocurrency space, there is a greater emphasis on the fluctuation of capital and the influence of public opinion. Lao Cui's view on small cryptocurrencies is to approach them with a purely speculative mindset. The difference between investing and speculating lies in the time lag. Most cryptocurrencies tend to benchmark against the overall market, moving in tandem with Bitcoin, just with varying degrees. Therefore, the movements of small cryptocurrencies often lag behind BTC. The trend of BTC and Ethereum is almost identical at this stage; you can observe that the current movements of BTC are virtually the same as those of Ethereum. However, the rates of decline are different; the fluctuations are primarily led by BTC, with Ethereum lagging behind for a certain period. If you have patience, you can observe closely. Therefore, Lao Cui's current focus is primarily on short positions in ETH. As long as Bitcoin declines by 1,000 points, Ethereum will inevitably follow suit.
Basically, the trend of every small cryptocurrency is influenced by Bitcoin, so everyone can ponder this time lag on their own. In the early stages, Lao Cui has already mentioned that as long as Bitcoin remains stable, small cryptocurrencies will start to rally. However, so far, almost all small cryptocurrencies are primarily in a downtrend, and the culprit is also BTC, with no concept of stabilization at all. Overall, they are all relying on large fluctuations. Behind Bitcoin's rapid fluctuations, there must be a lot of funds driving it. Therefore, for small cryptocurrencies to see significant growth, they must depend on Bitcoin's stability, and after that, they still need to consider Ethereum's movements. Although the growth is considerable, Lao Cui must remind everyone that investing in small cryptocurrencies should not be done with high positions, especially for those trading small cryptocurrency contracts. This approach is very risky; if funds are insufficient, focus on Ethereum. Small cryptocurrency contracts can ultimately only incur losses—definitely avoid them. The fluctuations in small cryptocurrencies are not something we can control; a smaller market cap can mean a higher ceiling, but it also means greater operational space for capital. This market is basically dominated by capital, and it will be much more challenging to win compared to the Bitcoin and Ethereum markets. At least ten times more difficult. For spot trading, everyone can try to assess using value and development perspectives, but for contract trading on short lines, while small cryptocurrencies are indeed stimulating, the real skill lies in preserving your principal.
Lao Cui's article yesterday was mainly based on the future trend of Bitcoin for speculation, without the participation of other cryptocurrencies. Therefore, everyone needs to understand that the future that Bitcoin may have is not something that all cryptocurrencies will achieve. At least for the current cryptocurrencies, at least 60% of them will likely die off, and only the remaining ones might share a fate similar to Bitcoin. Undoubtedly, aside from Bitcoin, the current value reflection is primarily based on Ethereum. The fate of ETH was fundamentally bound to the cryptocurrency space from the moment it was listed, and the reason for the slow growth can all be attributed to Vitalik's operations. Without improving the Ethereum ecosystem to provide opportunities for other cryptocurrencies, Ethereum's emergence was primarily based on high cost-effectiveness, and currently, Ethereum has nearly lost this advantage. The smart contract aspect can lay the foundation for its future, so for ordinary users, the first choice must be Bitcoin and Ethereum. Secondly, regarding the recent contract situation, Lao Cui hasn't discussed it much, largely because since December, the market's fluctuations have been more frequent. For contracts, entering the market in December may require long-term planning. For example, regarding this round of corrections, Lao Cui will enter according to the predetermined plan, starting from around 97 and continuing until the lowest point.
At this stage, those who want to buy the dip must manage their positions well, with 2% or even 1%. Entering Bitcoin should definitely be done with a mid-term or long-term approach, with the goal of focusing on high positions, targeting trends above 100,000 or even higher. December is destined to be extraordinary; I mentioned this back in November. Once the market officially breaks through 100,000, it is no longer within Lao Cui's expected range. I didn't expect Powell to pay such close attention to the cryptocurrency market. When Powell officially stated that Bitcoin's rival is gold, Lao Cui gradually awakened to the fact that the American layout is far more complex than we imagined. Today's Microsoft meeting will likely pass, and the financial backers behind Microsoft have long laid out their positions in the cryptocurrency market. Lao Cui's bullish theme today is still based on Microsoft, which is very important. Although the previous text mentioned the Microsoft meeting, it did not predict the outcome. Now I want to emphasize that bottom-fishing must be done decisively. Currently, we are competing with the market makers for mindset. Although the bearish sentiment came swiftly this morning, Bitcoin also instantly lost 0.05 trillion, and overall assets have not flowed out of the market, still waiting for signals. In the sideways and downward stages, we are selecting profitable long positions. This kind of profit is hard to grasp, so everyone should keep a calm mindset.
Since we mentioned position management, Lao Cui needs to remind everyone that if you choose to enter at a high position, from Lao Cui's perspective, anything below 100,000 is considered a low position. For a simple example, if you enter with 2% or 1% of your position, taking 99,000 as an example, every time the price drops by 1,000 points, add another 1%. Even if it drops to the 99,000 level, everyone would only lose about 30% of their position, while the average price would be brought down to around 95,000 or even lower. Once Lao Cui's market analysis reverses, the potential profits above are unimaginably rich. Without discussing 120,000 or 150,000, reaching around 110,000 based on the current price and trend is relatively easy. With Microsoft's entry and the arrival of interest rate cuts, new breakthroughs in price are expected. From a funding perspective, the capital occupation in the market is not significant; nearly reaching the billion level can meet this requirement. In comparison to small cryptocurrencies, a 10% fluctuation in Bitcoin might translate to a 20% fluctuation in small cryptocurrencies. So everyone should have the courage to buy the dip during the downtrend and not wait for an absolute low point to enter. Often, the positions people believe are low will surprise them to some extent. After today's recovery, we will see when Microsoft's funding is in place. Remember not to panic with long positions, especially spot users; even small cryptocurrencies can be held. Spot trading should be held for years, and don't focus too much on the gains and losses of a single city or pool. I hope everyone can stabilize their mindset! In the next article, Lao Cui will approach the topic from a psychological perspective to help everyone completely break free from the anchoring effect!
Lao Cui's advice: Investing is like playing chess. A master can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The master considers the overall situation and the big trend, not fixating on individual pieces or squares, aiming to win the game in the end. The novice, however, fights for every inch of ground, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, often getting trapped.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trade at your own risk!
