With the growth of the cryptocurrency market and the approval of the Bitcoin Ethereum spot ETF, cryptocurrency investment is increasingly inseparable from macroeconomic analysis. However, macroeconomic research is diverse and complex. This series of articles will share my own macroeconomic analysis framework, hoping to help students who are conducting macroeconomic research.

1. The role of macro research
a. Be responsible for risk control and allocate major asset classes according to different economic cycles;
b. Sense water temperature and capture turning points

2. Asset Correlation
There has been extensive research on the impact of different economic cycles on the prices of major asset classes in traditional finance, and the ineffectiveness of related articles is also very high. We can conduct macro research on Bitcoin through correlation analysis between Bitcoin and different major asset classes, and find out which asset it is closest to. By reading macro research reports on such assets, we can sense the temperature of the cryptocurrency market.

Before 2020, Bitcoin yields were negatively correlated with US stocks, with high yields -> diversifying portfolio risk and increasing portfolio yields
After 2020, Bitcoin and U.S. stocks are highly correlated, and investing in Bitcoin can be compared to the U.S. stock research framework

3. Macro logic
Economic data is the source of macro research, and asset performance is the purpose of the research.
Economic data influences market expectations and the formulation of monetary and fiscal policies.
When liquidity remains unchanged, market expectations rotate among different assets through stock games and rotation effects, thereby affecting the performance of different asset prices; the implementation of monetary and fiscal policies affects market liquidity, and changes in market liquidity affect asset price performance through incremental games and spillover effects, spilling over from low-risk assets to high-risk assets.
Finally, market liquidity and asset price performance will affect economic data.
Therefore, macroeconomic research focuses on economic data, monetary policy, fiscal policy, market expectations, and market liquidity.