Unexpected bad news! When I woke up, the world changed!
Trump was suspected of being assassinated in Florida. The gunman was holding an AK-47 and Trump was assassinated again. The cryptocurrency market began to crash, and the good market was burned. However, the probability of this happening again is not high, and Trump is fine, so when the panic is over, I think the trend will pick up. Alas, this cycle is really not easy. All kinds of unexpected emergencies really make everyone suffer.
BTC only fell 2%, ETH and SOL fell 5%, and the altcoin fell 10%. If Bitcoin falls 10%, the altcoin will be cut in half again. I will continue to wait patiently and still not buy anything.
After the holiday, we need to look forward to the market conditions at the end of September and October. While everyone has time during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, I will share the future market conditions in advance.
First of all, next Wednesday, September 19, is the interest rate cut date. The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 0.25%, and perform a Tai Chi-style soft landing, including the unemployment rate on September 6, the CPI on September 11, and the PPI on September 12. All the data are staged for a soft landing. A soft landing can prolong the bull market of the US stock market, lock in the US dollar from flowing out of the US mainland, and drag down a certain country [bitter]. The Americans love this kind of self-serving and self-defeating behavior the most.
So the economic data in September are all positive, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25
Then let's talk about the trend. The price of Bitcoin bottomed out at 52,500 on September 6, with a previous low of 49,000. The price of Ethereum bottomed at 2,150, with a previous low of 2,110. This is a very standard second test. It plummeted to 49,000 on August 5, then went up to 65,000 and then fell to 52,500, completing the second test of the daily line. This trend is also in line with the rules of the currency circle.
After the second test of 52,500, various favorable economic data + the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut led to early speculation and pull-up of the market. Bitcoin rose from 52,500 to 60,500 yesterday (today’s market situation suddenly changed and will not be reviewed for the time being), an increase of $8,000. It can be said that this wave has left the downward trend.
The rebound to the first pressure point is also the downward trend of August 5 (marked by the red line 60787 on the figure), and then the interest rate will be cut next Wednesday. This pre-hype pull (55555-60500) will fall back after the interest rate cut is implemented. The short-term speculation funds need to take profits and sell at a loss to stop profits.
After the implementation of the interest rate cut on September 19, a small retracement will be 56,000+, and a big retracement will be 54,000+. I can’t be sure of the details. I have marked the arrows. It depends on the strength of the retracement after September 19. You just need to be prepared. The two retracement positions of 56,000 and 54,000 will not break the 52,500 on September 6 (the second economic recession), nor will it break the 49,000 on August 5 (the first economic recession). The two economic recession hypes in early August and early September both failed. There is no economic recession, no number starting with 4, and no black swan.
After the interest rate cut on September 19, Bitcoin will fall back to 54-56,000 at the end of the month, and it will basically be October. The unemployment rate on October 4 will also be controlled by the Americans with a high probability, and then there will be a window period. In fact, after the interest rate cut on September 19, there will be no news to hype the economic recession.
So October is the best month in the second half of this year.
Once Bitcoin breaks through 61,000, the downward trend line of the August 5th plunge, there is no clear view above. Above 61,000 are two pressure levels, 65,000 and 68,000. Based on the experience of the past 10 years, the average increase in October was 20+%, which is also in line with the monthly line surge.
Here I would like to remind you: when Bitcoin breaks through 61,000 in October, the short button must be removed. The market in October must not be shorted.
After the news window in October, November is a month of big events. The results of the US presidential election on November 5, the second rate cut by the Federal Reserve on November 7, and the unemployment rate at the beginning of November are all in the beginning of November. I will talk about this later.
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