The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August CPI report at 8:30 tonight Beijing time.
The market predicts that the year-on-year increase in CPI will fall back to 2.6%. If the data is lower than expected, the hope of a 50 basis point interest rate cut will remain; if the data is higher than expected, a 25 basis point interest rate cut will be locked in next week.
Currently, the interest rate futures market expects a 65% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week and a 35% chance of a 50 basis point cut.
The role that tonight's CPI data can play is actually quite clear: if the data is higher than expected, it will help people lock in the mainstream expectation of a 25 basis point interest rate cut next week; if the data is lower than expected, it will further ignite the industry's "uncertainty" about whether the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points next week.
