Since the cryptocurrency market is currently closely related to the U.S. stock market, let’s first look at the trend of the U.S. stock market. Market data shows:
As of the close of U.S. stocks on Monday, the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 fell 0.90%, 0.5% and 1.5% respectively, causing the three major U.S. stock indexes to fall to their lowest levels since November 10.
Let's take a look at the trend of Bitcoin. The trend of Bitcoin is basically consistent with that of the U.S. stock market. It began to fall on the 19th, reaching a low of $16,210 before quickly rebounding. The current price is around 16,780.
From the 4-hour level, the price has fallen below the upward trend line and is still in a bearish direction.
Let’s look at the one-hour line again. Although the price has risen, the upper shadow of the K-line is very obvious, indicating insufficient upward momentum.
Combined with the hourly chart trend, from a technical point of view, BTC's first short-term support level is US$16,000, the second support level is US$15,400, the first pressure level is US$17,300, and the second pressure level is US$18,000.
From the perspective of market sentiment, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is 29 today, still showing panic. https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/. It shows that the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood.
After the interest rate hike, we still need to pay attention to changes in US inflation data. Overall, Bitcoin is not very volatile at present, and there have been a lot of rumors in the market recently, about institutions and exchanges. The bear market is always accompanied by a lot of negative news.
On Monday, the S&P 500 index fell below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), further highlighting the downward momentum. Judging from the linkage effect of risky assets, Bitcoin is still in a downward trend, and the technical side also verifies this.
In the 4-hour MACD indicator, the fast line DIF and slow line DEA are both below the zero axis, indicating that the overall market is still bearish;
From an operational perspective, if the market breaks through $17,300, you can arrange short orders with a stop loss of $17,600. If the market falls to $16,000, you can start to arrange long orders with a stop loss of $15,500.
Judging from the market sentiment, the mood is still in a state of panic, and there are no obvious hot spots and money-making effects in the market. For investors who hope to survive in the market for a long time, now is the best time to learn. They should seize the time to learn and fill in their knowledge blind spots, so that they will have the opportunity to earn their own profits when the bull market comes.
