Record the recent market situation, as a test post
Since the cryptocurrency market is currently closely related to the U.S. stock market, let’s first look at the trend of the U.S. stock market. Market data shows:
U.S. stocks extended losses on Thursday as a batch of new data heightened fears of a recession. The S&P 500 fell 2.5% on Thursday. The Nasdaq Composite fell 3.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.2%. All three major indexes closed at their lowest levels since early November, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.449% from 3.503% on Wednesday.
Let's take a look at the market trend of Bitcoin. The trend of Bitcoin is basically consistent with that of the U.S. stock market. It broke through the 18,000 U.S. dollar mark on the 14th, reached a high of 18,400 U.S. dollars, and then began to fall. It is currently hovering around 17,000 U.S. dollars.
From the 4-hour level, the Bollinger Bands have begun to close and the price has failed to break through the upper track, indicating that the market will still be dominated by fluctuations in the later period.
Let's look at the one-hour chart. From 2 to 4 a.m. on December 15, the FOMC of the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision and the Fed Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference. During this period, the price fluctuated greatly. The market swings can be clearly seen from the chart. This is why we recommend that you try to hold a light position or participate with low leverage when there is important news. The current price has returned to the level of December 13, indicating that the market driven by emotions will generally not last too long.
Combined with the hourly chart trend, from a technical point of view, BTC short-term support is 16300-16800 US dollars, and short-term pressure is 17800-18400 US dollars. At present, 18400 can be regarded as a short-term key technical resistance. Once it is broken, it can be regarded as opening up new upside space technically.
The Fed has already decided to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, which is in line with the general market expectations. However, Powell's speech was not so dovish. Whether to raise interest rates will obviously depend on the inflation situation, which has poured cold water on the market's hopes. At present, if there is no black swan event, the possibility of a deep fall in the stock market is not great.
From the perspective of market sentiment, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is 29 today, still showing extreme panic
Judging from the test of interest rate hikes, although the $18,000 mark was broken in the short term, it was quickly knocked down. Now the price is still fluctuating around $17,000, and there is still a lot of selling pressure on the upper side. If the market test stabilizes at $18,000, we can go long with a large position.
From a technical analysis, the first support level of Bitcoin is $16,800, and the second support level is $16,300. The first short-term pressure level is $17,800, and the second pressure level is $18,400.
In terms of operation, if the market falls below $16,700, you can arrange long orders in batches at 16,500-16,700, with a stop loss of $16,000. If the market tests above $18,000 again, you can choose to short, with a stop loss of $18,700.
For conservative investors, it is recommended to participate in the market with a small position and low leverage, or buying spot and making fixed investments are both good options.
