Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin’s indecisive Doji candle at major resistance signals hesitation, with downside support near $107K.
Ethereum broke down from a contracting range, exposing the $4,000 psychological level.
XRP’s weekly MACD has flipped bearish despite the recent U.S. ETF debut.
Dollar index (DXY) shows a bullish reversal signal, adding pressure on risk assets.
Fed speeches and Friday’s U.S. PCE inflation release are key catalysts for volatility this week.
Bitcoin Stalls at Key Resistance
Bitcoin (BTC) closed last week with a Doji candle near $118,000, signaling indecision at the critical long-term resistance trendline drawn from the 2017 and 2021 peaks. On the daily chart, BTC slipped below its September uptrend and is testing the Ichimoku cloud.
First support: $114,473 (50-day SMA).
Key downside: $107,300 (Sept. 1 low).
Bullish invalidation: Break above last week’s high at $118,000.
If bears maintain momentum, BTC could revisit the $107K level, marking a steep retracement from recent highs.
Ethereum Breaks Down, Eyes $4,000
Ether (ETH) fell out of its contracting triangle pattern, confirming renewed selling pressure. The breakdown directs focus to the Aug. 20 low at $4,062 and the key $4,000 psychological level.
Resistance to watch: $4,458 (last week’s high).
Immediate downside: $4,062 → $4,000 zone.
XRP MACD Turns Bearish
Despite the launch of the first U.S. XRP ETF last week, momentum remains weak. The weekly MACD has crossed bearish, signaling renewed downside pressure.
XRP is slipping back toward the upper boundary of its descending triangle, with bulls struggling to sustain the recent breakout attempt.
Dollar Index Bullish, Risk Assets at Risk
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) ended last week with a dragonfly Doji at critical support near 96.37. This bullish reversal signal suggests a potential dollar rebound — historically a headwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
DXY closed at 97.65, supported by firm U.S. Treasury yields.
Macro Catalysts: Fed Speak & PCE Inflation
This week brings a heavy macro calendar:
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and nine other officials are scheduled to speak, with investors watching closely for clues on the pace of future cuts.
Stephen Miran, who dissented in favor of a 50 bps cut, will also outline his policy stance.
On Friday, the U.S. core PCE index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) is expected at 2.9% YoY for August, up from the prior month — a risk factor for easing expectations.
With the Fed’s first rate cut behind us, markets are at a crossroads. A stronger dollar, bearish crypto technicals, and sticky inflation risks could pressure Bitcoin back toward $107K support, while XRP and ETH also face weakening setups. Traders are bracing for heightened volatility as Fed rhetoric and PCE data shape the next move, according to CoinDesk.
