According to Jin10 data, the FOMC statement is likely to pass with a 9-2 voting ratio, with Bowman and Waller expected to vote against. The wording of the statement may simplify the uncertainty of the economic outlook, acknowledging the slowdown in economic growth in the first half of the year, and the balance sheet reduction is likely to remain unchanged.
Powell's press conference will focus on interest rate prospects, discussing the 'two rate cuts' expectation suggested by the June dot plot, and may provide clues for a rate cut in September. He is expected to emphasize the importance of economic data, continuing the communication style of data dependence and meeting-by-meeting decision-making.
In terms of inflation and tariffs, Powell may remain cautious, reiterating the importance of maintaining price stability. If he emphasizes the upward risk of tariffs on inflation, he may appear more hawkish than expected. Facing pressure from Trump, Powell is unlikely to make substantial responses and is expected to reaffirm his independence and professionalism during his tenure.