Date: August 2, 2025
Timeframe: 1D (Daily Candle)
Current Price: $3,532.74
24h Change: -5.49%
24h High/Low: $3,758.56 / $3,491.00
1. 🧠 Price Action & Trend Overview
ETH recently experienced a strong bullish rally from the $2,373.00 level, topping out at $3,941.00, before facing a correction. The last few daily candles show:
A pullback from recent highs, with today's candle closing below both short-term EMAs.
ETH is forming a potential lower high, indicating short-term bearish pressure.
Support Levels:
Immediate: $3,491.00 (24h Low)
Strong: $3,329.48 (EMA 21 - pink line)
Major: $2,984.52 and $2,639.56
Resistance Levels:
$3,674.44 (EMA 9 - yellow line)
$3,941.00 (local top)
$4,019.40 (long-term resistance)
2. 📉 Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)
EMA(9): $3,689.86 (Bearish crossover below this level)
EMA(21): $3,513.33 (Currently testing this support)
EMA(99): $2,829.26 (Long-term support zone)
The price dropping below the 9 EMA and hovering just above the 21 EMA signals a loss in bullish momentum. If ETH breaks down below the 21 EMA convincingly, expect further downside.
3. 📈 Volume Analysis
Volume is declining slightly, with a recent increase in red (selling) volume, suggesting bearish dominance.
Volume spike at the top near $3,941.00 indicates distribution.
4. 🟡 MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
MACD Line: -40.42
DIF: 228.28
DEA: 268.70
Histogram: Below zero, red bars increasing in size
Interpretation:
MACD is bearishly crossing down below the signal line.
Histogram widening to the downside confirms downward momentum is increasing.
5. 🟠 RSI (Relative Strength Index)
RSI(6): 32.70
Interpretation:
RSI is approaching oversold territory (30).
A bounce may occur near this level, but unless confirmed by price action, it could simply be a dead cat bounce in a short-term downtrend.
6. 📉 Trend Analysis Over Time
Period Performance
Today -0.42%
7 Days -3.19%
30 Days +36.80%
90 Days +93.50%
180 Days +20.59%
1 Year +14.25%
Commentary:
While ETH is still strongly bullish on the higher timeframes (30–90 Days), the short-term reversal shows increasing vulnerability.
7. 🧭 Key Technical Signals Summary
IndicatorStatusSignal
Price Action Bearish Pullback 🔻
EMA (9/21) Bearish Cross 🔻
MACD Bearish Divergence 🔻
RSI Near Oversold ⚠️ Possible Bounce
Volume Bearish Spike 🔻
8. 📌 Strategic Outlook
🔴 Bearish Case (High Probability)
Breakdown below $3,513 support (EMA 21) could lead to retests of $3,329 and even $2,984.
Continued weakening of MACD and RSI may confirm downtrend continuation.
🟡 Neutral/Wait-and-See
Price hovering at EMA 21: consider waiting for confirmation before acting.
A bounce above EMA 9 ($3,689) could signal trend resumption, but only if confirmed with volume.
🟢 Bullish Reversal Scenario (Low Probability Short-Term)
RSI bounce at ~30 zone + bullish engulfing candle + rising volume could trigger short-term reversal.
Only sustainable if ETH breaks above $3,750–$3,900 resistance.
🔚 Conclusion
ETH/USDT is in a short-term downtrend amid a broader uptrend. Indicators suggest bearish pressure, and traders should exercise caution. A decisive move below EMA 21 or $3,513 may lead to more downside, while a bounce from RSI levels could offer a temporary relief rally.