According to BlockBeats, the Federal Reserve's July rate decision includes several key points. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement is expected to pass with a 9-2 vote, with board members Bowman and Waller likely opposing. The wording of the statement is anticipated to have minimal changes, possibly simplifying the expression of economic uncertainty and acknowledging the slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year.
The scale of balance sheet reduction is likely to remain unchanged, with monthly reductions of $5 billion in U.S. Treasury securities and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities.
During the press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to address the interest rate outlook, particularly the implications of the June dot plot suggesting two rate cuts. He may provide insights into the possibility of a rate cut in September. Powell is likely to emphasize the importance of economic data, continuing the communication style of data dependency and decision-making on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
Regarding inflation and tariffs, Powell may maintain a cautious stance, reiterating the commitment to price stability. If he highlights the upward risk of tariffs on inflation, his approach might be more hawkish than anticipated.
In response to U.S. President Donald Trump's frequent pressure, Powell is unlikely to make substantial comments, instead reaffirming his commitment to independence and professionalism during his term.