● Trump will announce trade matters related to multiple countries
According to ChainCatcher, Trump stated on Truth Social that he will announce trade-related matters involving at least seven countries tomorrow morning (Eastern Time), and will release information on additional countries in the afternoon.
● Global central banks face tariff pressures, interest rate cut expectations vary
According to Jin10 data reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that tariff risks have not yet materialized, making it difficult to cut interest rates before autumn. BNP Paribas believes the impact of tariffs on prices is not significant, while Goldman Sachs expects a slightly higher than 50% chance of a rate cut in September. The European Central Bank is concerned about the appreciation of the euro and export pressures, which may lead to a rate cut in the autumn. Deutsche Bank anticipates a rate cut to alleviate the impact of tariffs, and ANZ predicts sluggish growth in the eurozone, with a 25 basis point cut in September. The Bank of England faces a dilemma of sluggish economic growth and high inflation, with Goldman Sachs expecting a rate cut to begin in August, and Bank of America predicting multiple rate cuts in the second half of the year.
The Bank of Japan avoids the worst tariff situation, but tariffs affect export profits. Capital Economics believes that if tariffs are moderately increased, expectations for an interest rate hike in October will remain unchanged. The Bank of Canada is facing the risk of economic contraction, with Deloitte Canada predicting economic shrinkage and rising unemployment, while Capital Economics forecasts at least two more rate cuts. The Reserve Bank of Australia is hindered from cutting rates due to easing inflation and high uncertainty, with financial market prices rebounding as they await more information.
According to Odaily Planet Daily, Sentora stated that the proportion of Bitcoin miners' on-chain trading volume is at its lowest level in years. Currently, Bitcoin miners account for about 3.3% of on-chain trading volume, the lowest since November 2022. A decrease in miners' trading proportion usually indicates that they are more inclined to hoard Bitcoin rather than engage in frequent trading, choosing to reduce selling in anticipation of price increases. November 2022 was a low point for the crypto market, and the current low proportion may suggest more wait-and-see sentiment.
According to Deep Tide TechFlow, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr pointed out that the market is experiencing a typical Bollinger Bands squeeze, with the range dropping to 7.7%, one of the lowest values in the bull market cycle. The analyst believes this indicates that the market is accumulating energy, with prices preparing to enter a rally phase, increasing the likelihood of an upward breakout. Axel noted that there have been six Bollinger Bands squeezes in this bull market cycle, four of which were followed by immediate price increases, and two experienced slight adjustments before recovering. The current squeeze may indicate another wave of upward momentum, although minor consolidation may occur.
● Truth Social applies for a crypto blue-chip ETF
According to Odaily Planet Daily, Truth Social has submitted an S-1 form to US regulators to apply for a crypto blue-chip ETF.
According to BlockBeats, the US Securities and Exchange Commission is working with trading platforms to establish universal listing standards for cryptocurrency ETFs. Cryptocurrencies that meet the standards can skip the 19b-4 process and submit S-1 documents directly, going live after 75 days. This will save paperwork time for issuers and the SEC.
Specific rules for the universal listing standards for cryptocurrency ETFs have not yet been clarified, and the market speculates that market capitalization, trading volume, and liquidity are all being considered. Bloomberg Industry Research analysts expect a draft framework to be released this month, with implementation in September or October, and the gates for other asset ETFs will also open.
Analysts estimate the likelihood of the SEC approving ETFs for SOL, XRP, and LTC at 95%, while the approval probability for ETFs tracking Dogecoin, Cardano, and Polkadot is around 90%.
According to Deep Tide TechFlow, a June survey by Deutsche Bank shows that the US has the largest cryptocurrency user group, with an adoption rate of 17%, higher than 11% in the UK and 10% in the EU. The adoption rate among the 18-34 age group in the US rose from 24% in January to 29% in June, due to optimistic sentiment in the market regarding Trump's support for cryptocurrency policies. In the US, 32% of cryptocurrency adopters are from affluent groups. 23% of American males use cryptocurrency for payment or investment, compared to 13% of females. Males generally believe they have a deeper understanding of cryptocurrencies.
