● Federal Reserve officials show a "polar" division on tariff impacts and the urgency of rate cuts
According to Odaily Planet Daily, the new economic forecast released by the Federal Reserve this week shows that economic growth will slow down and inflation will rise. Nevertheless, policymakers expect to cut interest rates later this year.
Among the 19 officials, 7 believe that a rate cut is not necessary this year, while 8 believe that two rate cuts are needed, aligning with investors' expectations of a 25 basis point cut at the meetings in September and December. Two others expect one rate cut, and two expect three rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller believes that a rate cut could happen as early as July, while Barkin believes there is no urgency to cut rates. The two have vastly different views on the impact of Trump's tariffs, involving prices, employment, and economic growth.
According to Jin10 data, Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed support for considering a rate cut in July, believing that tariffs will not lead to sustained inflation. Waller stated that tariffs are a one-time factor, and the Federal Reserve should not wait until the job market collapses to cut rates.
The current employment market is stable, but there are some signs, such as a high unemployment rate among recent graduates. The Federal Reserve has been on the sidelines for the past six months, waiting for inflation shocks. Waller believes that the Federal Reserve has room to lower interest rates and then observe changes in inflation.
Waller stated that the Federal Reserve may be in a position to cut rates as early as July. Previously, the market bet on a 14% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in July.
According to Cointelegraph, BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF assets are nearing $70 billion, indicating increased interest from institutional investors, despite a slowdown in retail inflows. BlackRock holds over $6.97 billion worth of Bitcoin through its iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, accounting for 3.25% of the total supply.
BlackRock's ETF accounts for 54.7% of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market share, and these ETFs collectively hold 6.12% of the Bitcoin supply.
According to Wu Shuo, Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart stated that they have raised the probability of approval for most spot crypto ETFs to 90% or higher. They noted that active interaction with the U.S. SEC is an important signal.
However, the specific approval or launch timeline remains uncertain, potentially within the next month or two, or could be delayed until after October. They emphasized that this is a question of "when it happens," not "whether it happens."
● Bitwise CEO: The true competitor of Bitcoin is U.S. Treasuries, not gold
According to Deep Tide TechFlow, on June 20, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated that Bitcoin's true competitor is not gold, but U.S. Treasuries and government bonds. They are the ultimate "political" value storage tools, while gold and Bitcoin exist as non-political alternatives.
● ETH strategic reserve scale surpasses $3 billion
According to Foresight News, the Ethereum (ETH) strategic reserve scale driven by 38 entities has surpassed $3 billion.
According to Wu Shuo, QCP Capital pointed out that the crypto market is currently in a wait-and-see state. Despite rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, BTC prices remain stagnant. The derivatives market shows a more cautious sentiment, with BTC and ETH risk reversal preferences continuing to lean towards downside protection, indicating that investors are hedging against potential pullbacks. The implied volatility of ETH June at-the-money options is lower than September, and short-term event-driven risk premiums are retreating. The market is like a compressed spring, waiting for the next macro or geopolitical event to trigger volatility.
● Safe-haven demand weakens, gold may see its first weekly decline in three weeks
According to Jin10 data, gold is heading towards its first weekly decline in three weeks, as easing tensions in the Middle East have weakened safe-haven demand, while the Federal Reserve's inflation warnings have cooled rate cut expectations. Gold prices fluctuated little on Friday, with a cumulative decline of nearly 2% this week. U.S. President Trump's spokesperson stated that a decision on whether to participate in Israel's attack on Iran will be made within two weeks, alleviating concerns about regional war threatening energy supplies and pushing inflation higher. Before the situation eased, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell had warned of inflation risks from tariff policies. Although gold prices have accumulated an increase of about 30% this year, signs have emerged this week that investors are turning to silver and platinum as safe-haven options. Goldman Sachs reiterated its expectation of $4,000 next year, while Citigroup expects gold prices to fall below $3,000 by 2026.
