COMEX gold prices fell by 2.40%, market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in July

According to Jinshi Data, on May 8, COMEX gold prices fell by 2.40% to $3,310.40 per ounce, and Shanghai gold futures fell by 1.81% to ¥786.42 per gram. The April inflation expectation of the New York Federal Reserve for one year is 3.63%, higher than the previous value of 3.58%.

The President of the United States stated that, apart from the Federal Reserve, others are lowering interest rates, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is always 'too late.' CME data shows that the probability of maintaining the interest rate in June is 83.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 16.5%.

By July, the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 29.1%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 60.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 10.7%. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in July, with short-term attention on whether the market will further adjust.