According to Jinshi data, on May 15, COMEX gold prices rose by 1.74% to $3243.90 per ounce, and Shanghai gold futures rose by 1.22% to 754.32 yuan per gram. The U.S. industrial output monthly rate for April was 0%, below the expected 0.2%.
Powell stated that the Federal Reserve is adjusting its policy framework, with zero interest rates no longer being the baseline, and that the wording regarding underemployment and average inflation rates needs to be reconsidered. CME data shows that the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in June is 91.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 8.3%.
As of July, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 63.2%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 34.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 2.6%. The market has delayed expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, leading to a rebound in overnight gold prices.