According to Odaily Planet Daily, Bitcoin is expected to benefit from the expectation that a recession in the U.S. economy will become the 'baseline scenario.' Multiple sources have a pessimistic view of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve. The U.S. GDP growth unexpectedly turned negative in the first quarter, and trade tariff policies may exacerbate inflation, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma. It must choose between curbing inflation and the unemployment rate, making the extent and timing of interest rate cuts critical. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange FedWatch tool indicates that the market has conservative expectations for Federal Reserve policy, with little change expected before 2025. Participants in the cryptocurrency market are weighing the direction of Federal Reserve policy, with well-known trader Skew noting that the probability of interest rate cuts is rising, as the Federal Reserve is more focused on economic weakness.

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