Ki Young Ju Says Event-Driven Price Moves Are Challenging On-Chain Models

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin’s recent price action is putting traditional cycle theory to the test, adding that if BTC reaches a new all-time high before Q4 2025, he will "completely abandon" the idea that Bitcoin follows predictable four-year market cycles.

The comments were made in a social media post on April 23, as Bitcoin traded above $94,000, up more than 10% from when Ki previously called for the end of the bull cycle.

“Bitcoin fell 10% after I declared the end of the bull cycle, but now it’s 10% higher than when I made that call,” he noted.

Cycle Theory Under Pressure

Ki Young Ju is known for his on-chain, long-term supply-demand models, which typically rely on historical patterns and network activity to forecast market tops and bottoms. However, he now suggests that macroeconomic unpredictability and political events — particularly U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff-driven headlines — are distorting traditional signals.

“In a market that reacts to every word of Trump, short-term price movements are more event-driven, which makes traditional cyclical on-chain indicators difficult to use,” he explained.

He emphasized that while on-chain data remains a powerful tool, current conditions highlight how even experienced analysts can reach very different interpretations.

A New Market Structure?

The most striking remark from Ki centered around what happens if Bitcoin breaks above its previous all-time high (~$109,000) before Q4 2025.

“If Bitcoin hits a record high before the fourth quarter, I will completely abandon the cycle theory,” he said.
“A market without a clear cycle may be completely different from what we have previously known.”

He concluded by stating that in such a case, the “die-hard bulls will be right” — and Bitcoin could continue rising without the constraints of historical cycles.

Market Outlook: Event-Driven vs. On-Chain

Ki’s remarks reflect a growing divide between technical, on-chain analysis and the current event-driven, macro-reactive market environment. With Bitcoin climbing in response to geopolitical easing, ETF inflows, and U.S. dollar weakness, some analysts suggest that BTC may be entering a new structural phase, where institutional demand and macro trends outweigh traditional cyclical models.