Bitcoin and stock markets soar on Trump’s 90-day tariff pause, but experts say the rally could be short-lived.
Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market rallied sharply this week, fueled by optimism after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on global trade tariffs. The S&P 500 surged nearly 10%, recording its biggest single-day gain since 2008, while Bitcoin briefly spiked above $82,000, driving excitement across crypto Twitter. But is this the start of a new bull run — or just a temporary bounce in a longer bear market trend?
Historical Bear Market Patterns Suggest Caution
While many investors celebrated the rebound, analysts from Goldman Sachs and other major firms are warning that bear market rallies are common — and often misleading. According to Goldman’s report titled "Bear Market Anatomy", there have been 19 bear market rallies since the 1980s, typically lasting 44 days with average returns of 10-15%, only to be followed by deeper declines.
Callum Thomas, head of research at Topdown Charts, echoed the sentiment, noting that the 1930s bear market featured multiple double-digit rallies before bottoming out. "Is the 90-day bounce a BMR [Bear Market Rally]?" he asked.
Bitcoin Rally Follows Similar Patterns
Although Bitcoin price surged past $82K, analysts argue that this move mirrors past volatility during uncertain macroeconomic periods. With ongoing trade tensions, particularly against China, and no clear support from the Federal Reserve, the long-term bullish case remains unconfirmed.
Historical data shows that crypto bull runs require more than temporary relief — they often coincide with structural changes like regulatory clarity, central bank easing, or extreme oversold conditions.
What Investors Should Watch Next
Goldman Sachs points out that for a sustained bull market to return, several conditions must be met:
Attractive valuations
Policy intervention or rate cuts
A slowdown in macroeconomic deterioration
Extreme bearish positioning
At the time of writing, these signs are not clearly present. The tariff pause is temporary, inflation data remains volatile, and many equities and crypto assets are still trading at high valuations relative to fundamentals.
Bullish or Bear Trap?
While the recent market surge is encouraging, it may not signal the start of a new bull cycle. Instead, it could be one of several bear market rallies that create false confidence before further declines.
Investors are advised to remain cautious, especially with upcoming macroeconomic events like the March CPI report, which could further influence both equity and crypto market direction, according to CoinDesk.
