Short Analysis of XAU/USD (Gold vs. USD) M5 Chart
This 5-minute candlestick chart for XAU/USD captures a sharp bearish impulse from recent highs, trading at approximately 3635.81 (Sell/Bid) with a Buy/Ask at 3635.96, showing a narrow 0.15-point spread. Key observations:
Price Action: A cascade of red (bearish) candles has driven the price down ~13 points from around 3648-3649, breaching a red horizontal support near 3638 and testing lower wicks around 3634. This follows the prior M15 pullback, indicating accelerated selling pressure in early Asian/European overlap (11 Sep 04:50–08:50). Volume seems elevated on down candles, hinting at profit-taking amid overbought conditions.
Trend ContexThe move aligns with short-term consolidation in a dominant bullish structure, as gold respects an ascending channel breakout and potential Elliott Wave (3)-(5) extension. Broader drivers include dovish Fed signals (25-50 bps cut odds rising for Sep 17), a softening USD (DXY near 97.70), and safe-haven flows from US-China trade frictions and Middle East tensions. Spot gold is around $3,636 as of Sep 11, up ~9% MTD and 36% YTD, with forecasts eyeing $3,669+ by year-end amid central bank buying and Indian demand.
This appears as a quick scalp-level correction, not a trend reversal—healthy digestion before potential resumption.
Trading Tips
Bullish Bias – Scalp the Rebound: Look for a green candle close above 3638-3640 (retest of broken support). Enter long targeting 3643 (immediate) and 3649 (prior high). Stop-loss below 3634 for tight risk (0.3-0.5% of capital).
Bearish Scenario – Ride the Momentum: On a close below 3634, short toward 3629-3623. Use the 12-period SMA as trailing resistance; exit on bullish divergence.
Risk Management: Stick to M1-M5 for entries in this volatile window—avoid holding through low-liquidity hours. Monitor Fed speakers and USD data for spikes. Enforce 1:2+ risk-reward; gold's safe-haven status means news can flip sentiment fast. Position size conservatively!
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