XAG is now 59.8, having been pulled up 4 points from 57.7.
The trend looks okay: it’s above the moving averages, with more bullish than bearish candles over the 4-hour period. But the internal structure isn’t right. When the price was rising, the open interest actually dropped by nearly 5%. The proportion of aggressive sell orders is 65%, and trading activity has been cut in half. Prices are going up, but money is running out—there are more sellers than buyers, so open interest doesn’t increase; it actually falls.
Whales are 80% long, and their positions are also shrinking—down 5%. Even big holders are reducing their positions, so the driving force behind this rally is clearly insufficient.
This setup is too familiar: it gets pumped to attract buyers, and if volume can’t keep up, it softens. I can’t figure it out—after a day of gains, open interest drops instead, and the money doesn’t follow.
I won’t chase; I’ll wait and see. I’ll look for a pullback or for capital to come back in.
#xag $XAG