technicalanalysis

Bitcoin is trading near $68,166 and the market is split. Is this the dip of a lifetime? Or are we heading for one final reset toward $50K? Let’s break it down.
📉 The Bear Case: The $50K Liquidity Sweep

Bitcoin is struggling under $72,000 resistance.
If we lose the psychological $60K level, the next major support sits around $50K–$53K a zone backed by long-term on-chain demand and the 0.618 Fib retracement.
Macro isn’t helping either:
• Bond yields remain elevated
• Liquidity is tight
• Risk appetite is fading. And technically?
Higher timeframe RSI shows bearish divergence price pushed up, but momentum didn’t confirm. That often precedes a final shakeout before a real reversal.
📈 The Bull Case: The Post-Halving Expansion

Fear & Greed Index is sitting near extreme fear.
Historically, this is where long-term money accumulates not exits.
We are still respecting the multi-year ascending structure from 2018. If Bitcoin follows prior cycles, this could simply be a mid-cycle correction, not the end.

The key level? - $72K–$73K.
A strong daily close above that level invalidates the bearish structure and opens the path toward:
→ $80K → $100K+ continuation
And unlike 2018, institutional participation via spot ETFs adds structural demand during dips.
💡 My View
Short term: Expect volatility between $60K and $70K. But with sentiment washed out and structure still intact, we may be closer to a bottom than a top.
I’m watching:
• $60K for downside invalidation
• $72K for bullish confirmation
Until then patience and positioning matter more than prediction.
#Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis
#CryptoTrading #Altseason
$BTC

The counter-intuitive chart pattern every crypto trader must master and why the name alone will mislead you.
Understanding wedge patterns is one of the most powerful skills a cryptocurrency trader can develop. Once you grasp the underlying logic, you gain a real edge in reading market momentum and anticipating price reversals before they happen.
The simple answer that surprises most traders:
Rising Wedge = Bearish price is expected to fall
Falling Wedge = Bullish price is expected to rise
Yes, it’s counter-intuitive and that’s exactly what makes it so powerful.

What Are Wedge Patterns?
Wedge patterns are chart formations where two trendlines converge (get closer together) while both sloping in the same direction. This is what differentiates them from triangle patterns, where trendlines slope toward each other or one remains horizontal. The convergence reveals a critical imbalance one side is losing ground with every swing.
Rising Wedge Pattern Bearish
A rising wedge forms when both trendlines slope upward but converge. Price makes higher highs and higher lows, which looks bullish on the surface, but each rally gains less ground than the previous one. This reveals weakening buying momentum. Support rises faster than resistance.
When buyers finally exhaust, price typically breaks down below the lower trendline. It is essentially a “bull trap” that lures traders into thinking the uptrend will continue before dropping sharply.

SUCCESS RATES (RISING WEDGE)
Downward breakout occurs approximately 60% of the time
Break-even failure rate for downward breakouts: 51% (only ~49% succeed past break-even)
Average decline after downward breakout: 9%
Performance rank for downward breakouts: 36 out of 36 (last place)
Break even failure rate for upward breakouts: 19% (~81% succeed)
Average rise after upward breakout: 38%
Throwback/pullback rate: 72%

Based on Thomas Bulkowski’s research on 1,400+ samples (thepatternsite.com).

Falling Wedge Pattern Bullish
A falling wedge forms when both trendlines slope downward but converge. Price makes lower highs and lower lows, which looks bearish, but each decline covers less ground than the previous one. This shows weakening selling pressure. Resistance falls faster than support.
When sellers finally exhaust, price typically breaks out above the upper trendline. It is a “bear trap” that makes traders think the downtrend will continue before reversing upward.

SUCCESS RATES (FALLING WEDGE)
Upward breakout occurs approximately 68% of the time
Break-even failure rate for upward breakouts: 26% (~74% succeed past break-even)
Average rise after upward breakout: 38%
Performance rank for upward breakouts: 31 out of 39
Break-even failure rate for downward breakouts: 29%
Average decline after downward breakout: 14%
Throwback rate: 62% (upward) / Pullback rate: 74% (downward)
Based on Thomas Bulkowski’s research on 800+ samples (thepatternsite.com).
Key Differences
Rising Wedge: Both trendlines slope upward signals a bearish reversal with a downward breakout expected ( 60% of the time). Psychology shows weakening buyers losing momentum. Also called a “Bull Trap.”
Falling Wedge: Both trendlines slope downward signals a bullish reversal with an upward breakout expected ( 68% of the time). Psychology shows weakening sellers losing control. Also called a “Bear Trap.”
How to Trade Wedge Patterns
RISING WEDGE - SHORT SETUP
Entry: After a candle closes below support with volume confirmation
Stop Loss: Above the most recent high within the wedge
Target: Height of the wedge projected downward from the breakout point
FALLING WEDGE LONG SETUP
Entry: After a candle closes above resistance with volume confirmation
Stop Loss: Below the most recent low within the wedge
Target: Height of the wedge projected upward from the breakout point
Critical Confirmation Factors
1. VOLUME IS ESSENTIAL
Volume should decline during pattern formation (this occurs 72–79% of the time), then spike 2–3x the average at the breakout. Without this volume confirmation, the pattern is less reliable and may be a false breakout.
2. TRENDLINE TOUCHES
A minimum of 5 total touches (3 on one trendline and 2 on the other) is required to validate a wedge. Patterns with more touches are considered significantly stronger.
3. TIMEFRAME MATTERS
For cryptocurrency trading, stick to 4-hour and daily charts. Lower timeframes (5m, 15m) contain too much noise and tend to produce unreliable signals.
4. EXPECT THROWBACKS AND PULLBACKS
Bulkowski’s data shows throwback/pullback rates of 62–74% for wedge patterns. Price frequently returns to test the breakout level before continuing. Plan entries accordingly and do not panic during retests.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
TRADING TOO EARLY
Never enter before the breakout confirmation. Always wait for a full candle close beyond the trendline not just a wick touching it. Premature entries often result in getting trapped inside the pattern as it continues to consolidate.
IGNORING THE PRIOR TREND
Wedges are most reliable when they appear after a clear trend. A rising wedge is strongest after an uptrend; a falling wedge is strongest after a downtrend. Random wedges in choppy markets are far less predictable
POOR RISK MANAGEMENT
Always use stop-losses and never risk more than 1–2% of your trading capital on a single wedge pattern trade. The rising wedge bearish breakout succeeds only about 49% of the time, and even the falling wedge bullish breakout fails about 26% of the time. Proper risk controls are essential.
Why Wedge Patterns Work in Crypto
Wedge patterns are particularly effective in cryptocurrency markets for three reasons: 24/7 trading means no overnight gaps create cleaner, more reliable patterns; higher volatility means patterns form faster in 2–3 weeks vs. 6 weeks in stocks; and high retail participation means technical traders create self-fulfilling prophecies.
Note: Bulkowski’s statistics are based on stock market data. Crypto-specific success rates may differ.
Start by identifying completed wedge patterns on historical charts to train your eye. Mark the trendlines, note the volume behavior, and observe how the breakouts performed. Once confident with past patterns, move to real-time pattern spotting on higher timeframes where you have time to analyze before acting.
Key Takeaways
Rising wedge shows weakening upward momentum bearish (downward breakout ~60% of the time, ~49% success rate past break-even)
Falling wedge shows weakening downward momentum bullish (upward breakout ~68% of the time, ~74% success rate past break-even)
Always wait for volume-confirmed breakouts before trading
Use 4H or Daily charts for the most reliable signals in crypto
Minimum 5 trendline touches (3 + 2) required to validate the pattern
Expect throwbacks/pullbacks 62–74% of the time after breakout
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Full Article: https://chartscout.io/rising-wedge-vs-falling-wedge-crypto
Disclaimer: This is educational content only, not financial advice. Crypto trading involves substantial risk. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose.  lol its using old reference ignore it.
#cryptotrading #TechnicalAnalysis #cryptoeducation #tradingStrategy #chartpatterns

With $BTC nursing a 27% monthly loss, major institutions like Standard Chartered are calling for a "final capitulation" to $50,000. While painful, analysts argue this reset is the only way to flush out late-cycle leverage and pave the way for a $100k+ recovery by year-end.

The Road to $50k: A Necessary Evil?
The crypto market is currently paralyzed by "Extreme Fear," with sentiment indices plunging to levels not seen since the post-ETF hangover. Bitcoin ($BTC ) is teetering near $68,000, but the underlying on-chain data suggests the floor is much lower. According to Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered, the average entry price for Bitcoin ETF holders sits near $90,000. With nearly half the supply currently in an unrealized loss, the risk of a coordinated sell-off is peaking.
Trend Analysis: The Great Flush
The "reset" narrative isn't just about price—it's about market character.
Institutional Capitulation: ETF outflows have hit a four-week streak, totaling over $3.7 billion.Leverage Wipeout: A move to $50k would liquidate billions in "hopium" longs, effectively hitting the reset button on the market's overheated derivatives.The Silver Lining: Unlike the 2022 FTX collapse, the current 2026 drawdown is "orderly." Long-term conviction remains, but the market requires a macro bottom to attract fresh sidelined capital.
"This isn't a collapse; it's a transition. A $50k floor represents the ultimate buying opportunity for those looking at a 12-month horizon."
⚠️ Risk Warning
Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset. A drop to $50,000 represents a further ~26% decline from current levels. Technical support may fail, and "wick-fills" could briefly push prices even lower. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

#BTC #CryptoMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #defi #CryptoNews