💡Glassnode Data Shows Bitcoin May Drop To $105.5K This Week, Here’s Why💡
Traders predominantly brace for Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry today, anticipating a drop in prices after the recent rebound across the crypto market.
30K BTC options with a notional value of $3.52 billion set to expire on the largest derivatives exchange Deribit, September 19. The put-call ratio is 1.23, indicating bearish sentiment as traders continue to place put bets in response to the quarterly expiry next week after the latest crypto market rally.
In the last 24 hours, the put-call ratio is at 0.77 as call volume surpasses 22,300 in comparison to a put volume of 17,250. This signals a cautious sentiment among options traders awaiting cues leading up to the next major expiry.
The max pain price is $114,000, way below the current market price. Options traders may look to bring BTC down towards the max pain point, with puts clustered around $100,000-108,000 strike price.
177K ETH options of notional value $0.80 billion to expire on Deribit, with a put-call ratio of 1. It indicates bearish sentiment among traders and a likely drop in ETH price.
The max pain price is at $4,500, still below the current ETH price of $4,539. Notably, the $4,500 strike price has higher total call options bets of $22 million than $17 million in put options. This suggests a potential downward bias, as call buyers will likely aim to drive the price towards the level to minimize losses.
Glassnode data, 95% of holders are in profit, increasing profit booking risk. Futures show short squeezes and options open interest hit a record 500k BTC ahead of the major September 26 expiry. Bulls need to hold above the 115.2K level to continue moving upside. A consequent drop could trigger a Bitcoin crash to 105.5k.
Max pain point sits near $110K, the level where most options would expire. Notably, this is a “Triple Witching,” as it combines weekly, monthly, and quarterly maturities, concentrating flows and liquidity.
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