ShortTerm

Recent Bitcoin market dynamics reveal a tension between surging short-term holder (STH) profit-taking and robust underlying demand. Here's a synthesized analysis of key trends:
🔥 Intensifying Profit-Taking by Short-Term Holders
1. $11.4B+ Profits Realized: STHs (holding 1-3 months) locked in over $11.4B in profits during the past 30 days—a dramatic surge from $1.2B in the prior period. This signals aggressive profit-taking near all-time highs (ATHs) .
2. Peak Daily Realized Profit: Daily profit-taking hit $747M, with the STH Profit/Loss Ratio reaching levels higher than 92% of historical trading days. This often precedes local tops as supply overwhelms demand .
3. Unrealized Profit at 27%: The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for STHs is 27%. Historically, selling pressure accelerates when this exceeds 40%—a threshold projected for mid-June if current trends persist .
💪 Countervailing Demand Forces
Despite profit-taking, demand remains resilient due to:
1. ETF Inflows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs sustained inflows averaging $300M/day in May, absorbing sell pressure and acting as a structural demand pillar .
2. Institutional Accumulation: Firms like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Metaplanet continue aggressive BTC acquisitions, with Strategy planning an $84B raise to expand its holdings .
3. Realized Cap Milestone: Bitcoin’s Realized Cap (tracking total capital invested) surpassed $900B for the first time, reflecting strong capital inflows despite volatility .
📊 Technical and On-Chain Support Levels
- Key Support Zone: $95K–$103K, anchored by the STH cost basis ($95.9K) and the 200-day moving average ($94.3K). This zone held during recent pullbacks .
- Overhead Resistance: The $120K–$135K range is critical. Glassnode identifies $120.3K (STH cost basis +0.5σ) and $135.7K (+1σ) as supply zones where profit-taking could surge .
- MVRV Indicator: Bitcoin trades between the +0.5σ ($100.2K) and +1σ ($119.4K) bands. Movement above +1σ often signals overheating .
⚠️ Risks and Catalysts Ahead
- June 11 Sell Signal: If NUPL rises linearly (0.818%/day), it may hit 40% by June 11, potentially triggering STH sell-offs. Axel Adler projects BTC could reach $162K by then if momentum holds .
- Macro Sensitivity: Events like Trump’s proposed EU tariffs (delayed to July 9) caused a flash crash to $108K and wiped $1.2B from futures open interest. Geopolitical shocks remain a near-term risk .
- Derivatives Leverage: Futures open interest surged 51% since April ($55.6B), while options hit $46.2B ATH. High leverage increases vulnerability to liquidations .
📈 Price Trajectory Scenarios
| Scenario | Triggers | Price Target |
|---------------------|-----------------------------------------------|-----------------------|
| Bullish Continuation | ETF inflows > STH selling, NUPL stays <40% | $120K–$162K by mid-June |
| Consolidation | Demand/supply equilibrium, macro uncertainty | $103K–$112K range |
| Deeper Correction | NUPL >40%, black swan event, leverage unwinds | Test of $95K support |
💎 Conclusion: Euphoria Meets Discipline
While STH profit-taking suggests a near-term consolidation or pullback (a "breather" ), robust institutional demand and ETF inflows provide a structural floor. The market is in a late bullish phase but not yet euphoric—extreme profit-taking (e.g., STH NUPL >40%) and MVRV above +1σ ($119.4K) would signal overheating. For now, the path of least resistance leans upward, with dips to $103K–$105K likely bought aggressively. Monitoring the 40% NUPL threshold in mid-June is critical for anticipating STH-induced volatility .
> ℹ️ Key Takeaway: Market strength hinges on fresh capital (ETFs/institutions) outpacing STH profit-taking. Until the 40% NUPL threshold is breached, the bull trend remains intact—but politically driven sell-offs could accelerate deleveraging.

#Bitcoin2025
#ShortTerm
#holders
#Market_Update
#MarketSentimentToday

✅ Short-term Forecast:

According to Binance data, the algorithm predicts an increase of about 5% over the next 30 days, potentially raising the price to $$0.00001$$ (with the current market cap around $4.3 billion).

Services like CoinLore predict a target price of $$0.0000111$$ within the next 10 days, which may also indicate a slight market cap increase.

🧠 2025–2026 Outlook:

CoinLore estimates PEPE’s maximum price by the end of 2025 at $$0.0000269$$, which would mean a market cap growth if the supply remains stable.

TokenMetrics suggests a scenario where, with a global crypto market valued at $10 trillion, PEPE maintaining dominance of about 0.13% could reach $0.0000304, approximately a 3× increase compared to the current ~$0.00001.

📊 Long-term Forecasts:

DigitalCoinPrice and other analyses project that by 2026 PEPE could reach $0.0000219–0.0000257, with some highly optimistic scenarios reaching even $0.00044.

For the 2030+ timeframe, PricePrediction estimates a possible maximum of $1.13–1.36 (!), but this is an ultra-speculative and very distant scenario.

---

🔍 Summary

Time Horizon Predicted PEPE Price Market Cap Implication

Short-term (next month) ~$0.000010–0.0000111 Potential slight increase
Mid-term (2025–2026) $0.00002–$0.00003 Possible 2–3× market cap growth
Long-term (2030+) Up to $1+ (very speculative) Requires extreme growth and adoption

---

❗ Will PEPE’s Market Cap Actually Increase?

It depends on several factors:

🔹 A broader crypto market bull run, with total market possibly reaching multiple trillions USD.

🔹 PEPE’s dominance behavior (whether its market share grows relative to the whole market).

🔹 Community activity level — adoption, real use cases, token burns, etc.

---

ℹ️ Conclusions:

In the near term (weeks/months): a moderate increase of a few percent is possible given favorable market conditions.

In the mid-term (2025–2026): growth by several thousand to tens of thousands of percent is possible but requires strong market trends and significant community interest.

In the long term (~10 years): very speculative forecasts predicting growth to $1+ are unlikely without breakthrough adoption of memecoins as an asset class.
#PEPE‏ #potential #ShortTerm #longterm #musthaveinfo $PEPE