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🧧Congrats to the crew for hitting the trade in the right direction, keep an eye on those TP levels I shared.
🔸 Wishing you all a great evening.$BTC
#Pada_Research $BTC
🔸 Wishing you all a great evening.$BTC
#Pada_Research $BTC
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he would make inflation a "thing of the past" and stressed that the Fed's top priority is to steer monetary policy in the right direction to restore price stability.
Warsh criticized the Fed's previous policy framework for allowing inflation to run above the 2% target, saying this was a mistake that has kept inflation elevated for years.
He also assessed that the U.S. economy is still growing steadily and believes that the wave of investment in AI will help boost productivity, thereby easing inflation pressure in the long term.
However, Warsh's message indicates that the Fed is still leaning toward the scenario of keeping interest rates high for an extended period.
#Pada_Research
Warsh criticized the Fed's previous policy framework for allowing inflation to run above the 2% target, saying this was a mistake that has kept inflation elevated for years.
He also assessed that the U.S. economy is still growing steadily and believes that the wave of investment in AI will help boost productivity, thereby easing inflation pressure in the long term.
However, Warsh's message indicates that the Fed is still leaning toward the scenario of keeping interest rates high for an extended period.
#Pada_Research
🔥CPI 🇺🇸
📊 CPI this month 🇺🇸: 3.5% | Forecast: 3.8% | Previous: 4.2%
📊 Core CPI this month 🇺🇸: 2.6% | Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: 2.9%
Sudden CPI drop is great for Crypto. Brothers, close all Sell orders nhé.
#Pada_Research $BTC
📊 CPI this month 🇺🇸: 3.5% | Forecast: 3.8% | Previous: 4.2%
📊 Core CPI this month 🇺🇸: 2.6% | Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: 2.9%
Sudden CPI drop is great for Crypto. Brothers, close all Sell orders nhé.
#Pada_Research $BTC
The time has come to win the “Battle of Hormuz” and ensure freedom of navigation
President Donald Trump is right when he declared that the “ceasefire” order with Iran failed, and that the top priority now is to force Iran to permanently open the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States should use every necessary measure to secure freedom of navigation, while diplomacy is only an additional option. Iran has proved its promises untrustworthy: after reaching a preliminary agreement, it continued to attack merchant vessels and announced that it would close the strait.
The main goal is not for the United States to control or charge fees, but to ensure that international commercial ships can travel safely in international waters, with no country granted a monopoly or imposed tolls.
Iran claims it has the right to control the Strait of Hormuz, but the United States and its allies argue that this is a vital international shipping lane, where more than 20% of the world’s oil is transported. A blockade of Hormuz could seriously affect the global economy.
The United States’ blockade of Iranian ports and its continued airstrikes are part of a pressure strategy, but Washington should not turn the role of protecting freedom of navigation into a practice of charging tolls.
Finally, the United States should increase military pressure, strike key targets of the Iranian authorities, and make it clear to Tehran that good faith can only be demonstrated through action: opening the Strait of Hormuz for the long term before any further negotiations.
#Pada_Research
President Donald Trump is right when he declared that the “ceasefire” order with Iran failed, and that the top priority now is to force Iran to permanently open the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States should use every necessary measure to secure freedom of navigation, while diplomacy is only an additional option. Iran has proved its promises untrustworthy: after reaching a preliminary agreement, it continued to attack merchant vessels and announced that it would close the strait.
The main goal is not for the United States to control or charge fees, but to ensure that international commercial ships can travel safely in international waters, with no country granted a monopoly or imposed tolls.
Iran claims it has the right to control the Strait of Hormuz, but the United States and its allies argue that this is a vital international shipping lane, where more than 20% of the world’s oil is transported. A blockade of Hormuz could seriously affect the global economy.
The United States’ blockade of Iranian ports and its continued airstrikes are part of a pressure strategy, but Washington should not turn the role of protecting freedom of navigation into a practice of charging tolls.
Finally, the United States should increase military pressure, strike key targets of the Iranian authorities, and make it clear to Tehran that good faith can only be demonstrated through action: opening the Strait of Hormuz for the long term before any further negotiations.
#Pada_Research
Compilation of some information for the day for you guys!
🛢️ Oil / Energy
• OPEC in June cuts its forecast for 2026 oil demand growth to 0.78 million bpd (from 0.97 mbpd)
• Kuwait sharply reduces its August crude oil selling prices, offering a $5 per barrel discount for Asia (vs a $5.25 premium)
• Iran lifts the ban on exporting petrochemical products, but still restricts industrial grease and sulfonic acid
• Iran & Russia are about to finalize a natural gas deal—energy giants to collaborate
• Nigeria’s June crude oil production hits 1.56 million bpd, exceeding OPEC quotas, the highest in 74 months
⛽ Other Energy
• LNG flows through Hormuz are paralyzed; Kpler: 0 vessels pass through from 11/7, impacting Qatar & the UAE
🌍 Geopolitics
• The UK lists Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, summons the Iranian ambassador to “talk”
• Yemen says it carried out airstrikes on Sana’a airport to prevent Iranian aircraft from landing, blaming Saudi Arabia for breaking the ceasefire
• Iran says “Hormuz cannot be passed because of the US’s hostile actions”; Trump says “the US will operate and charge fees for the strait”
🏦 Monetary Policy
• Germany’s 10-year government bond yield rises by 2.4bp to 3.0585%, the biggest weekly jump since June, driven by surging oil + inflation
• Speculation: the BoE could be more hawkish if oil prices rise; market pricing shows a 28% chance of further rate hikes by year-end
💱 FX / Currency
• The dollar benefits from safe-haven demand & expectations of a hawkish Fed; MUFG warns it will flop if core CPI is weak
• ECB banking center: overnight deposits are still huge at €2,037 billion, liquidity signals “extreme surplus”
🥇 Gold / Metals
• India’s gold imports in June are just $1.97 billion, less than expected (affecting buying demand)
• The EU bans purchases, importing & transshipping gold from Sudan, tightening supply sources further.
#Pada_Research
🛢️ Oil / Energy
• OPEC in June cuts its forecast for 2026 oil demand growth to 0.78 million bpd (from 0.97 mbpd)
• Kuwait sharply reduces its August crude oil selling prices, offering a $5 per barrel discount for Asia (vs a $5.25 premium)
• Iran lifts the ban on exporting petrochemical products, but still restricts industrial grease and sulfonic acid
• Iran & Russia are about to finalize a natural gas deal—energy giants to collaborate
• Nigeria’s June crude oil production hits 1.56 million bpd, exceeding OPEC quotas, the highest in 74 months
⛽ Other Energy
• LNG flows through Hormuz are paralyzed; Kpler: 0 vessels pass through from 11/7, impacting Qatar & the UAE
🌍 Geopolitics
• The UK lists Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, summons the Iranian ambassador to “talk”
• Yemen says it carried out airstrikes on Sana’a airport to prevent Iranian aircraft from landing, blaming Saudi Arabia for breaking the ceasefire
• Iran says “Hormuz cannot be passed because of the US’s hostile actions”; Trump says “the US will operate and charge fees for the strait”
🏦 Monetary Policy
• Germany’s 10-year government bond yield rises by 2.4bp to 3.0585%, the biggest weekly jump since June, driven by surging oil + inflation
• Speculation: the BoE could be more hawkish if oil prices rise; market pricing shows a 28% chance of further rate hikes by year-end
💱 FX / Currency
• The dollar benefits from safe-haven demand & expectations of a hawkish Fed; MUFG warns it will flop if core CPI is weak
• ECB banking center: overnight deposits are still huge at €2,037 billion, liquidity signals “extreme surplus”
🥇 Gold / Metals
• India’s gold imports in June are just $1.97 billion, less than expected (affecting buying demand)
• The EU bans purchases, importing & transshipping gold from Sudan, tightening supply sources further.
#Pada_Research
Week 3 outlook for $BTC
🔸 BTC today closed a W & D candle in a rather bad way, so this week’s plan is still to wait to Sell on the rise:
🔸 Entry 63-64000.
🔸 TP: 61000-60000 or 55000 (if H4 closes below 60k with volume)
💡 The U.S.–Iran conflict is escalating further, driving inflation up, while yields on U.S., Japan, Germany, U.K. bonds... are all increasing, showing that the economy is rather weak. There is little hope for Crypto to rise in the long term at this time.
#Pada_Research
🔸 BTC today closed a W & D candle in a rather bad way, so this week’s plan is still to wait to Sell on the rise:
🔸 Entry 63-64000.
🔸 TP: 61000-60000 or 55000 (if H4 closes below 60k with volume)
💡 The U.S.–Iran conflict is escalating further, driving inflation up, while yields on U.S., Japan, Germany, U.K. bonds... are all increasing, showing that the economy is rather weak. There is little hope for Crypto to rise in the long term at this time.
#Pada_Research
💡 Keep fighting on!
🔴 Iran's Supreme Joint Military Command: The U.S. Army has carried out a "blatant act of aggression" targeting several areas in southern Iran, and the armed forces will respond with a "destructive" retaliation to U.S. attacks.
Nhận định đầu tuần !
As per the plan we agreed on 64, just sit tight and wait for the profit! $BTC
#Pada_Research
🔴 Iran's Supreme Joint Military Command: The U.S. Army has carried out a "blatant act of aggression" targeting several areas in southern Iran, and the armed forces will respond with a "destructive" retaliation to U.S. attacks.
Nhận định đầu tuần !
As per the plan we agreed on 64, just sit tight and wait for the profit! $BTC
#Pada_Research
🛢️ Oil / Energy
• OPEC+ officially increases quotas by 18.8k barrels/day from 8/8, meeting again on 2/8 📈
• Iran shifts 6 ships off the Oman route—an apparent move to prepare a retaliatory strike 🚨
🌍 Geopolitics
• Israel shelling Lebanon, captures the high ground of Shebaa Farms—new escalation 🔥
• Netanyahu declares the “Yellow Line” Lebanon buffer zone—no Gaza rebuilding if weapons remain ⚠️
• Cargo ships attacked off the coast of Yemen—Houthi forces continue hunting 🛳️
• Iran–Qatar resume sea trade after 5 months, easing tensions locally 🕊️
🏦 Monetary Policy
• Fed minutes suddenly turn hot because Walsh is less talkative—markets read the signature from the June minutes 📜
#Pada_Research
• OPEC+ officially increases quotas by 18.8k barrels/day from 8/8, meeting again on 2/8 📈
• Iran shifts 6 ships off the Oman route—an apparent move to prepare a retaliatory strike 🚨
🌍 Geopolitics
• Israel shelling Lebanon, captures the high ground of Shebaa Farms—new escalation 🔥
• Netanyahu declares the “Yellow Line” Lebanon buffer zone—no Gaza rebuilding if weapons remain ⚠️
• Cargo ships attacked off the coast of Yemen—Houthi forces continue hunting 🛳️
• Iran–Qatar resume sea trade after 5 months, easing tensions locally 🕊️
🏦 Monetary Policy
• Fed minutes suddenly turn hot because Walsh is less talkative—markets read the signature from the June minutes 📜
#Pada_Research
$BTC Sell now and Dca at 62300.
TP: 57-53K
The Non-Farm report is out:
🇺🇸 WARNING SIGNS IN THE US LABOR MARKET
In June, the US economy only added 57,000 jobs—far below expectations of 114,000. This is a clear sign of weakening.
The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2% (forecast 4.3%), but it came with a downward revision to May data by -43,000 jobs.
→ The labor market is in an unstable state: figures are weaker than expected, and past data has been downgraded. The Fed will need to consider carefully before deciding on interest rates. Is this the first sign of a recession?
#Pada_Research
TP: 57-53K
The Non-Farm report is out:
🇺🇸 WARNING SIGNS IN THE US LABOR MARKET
In June, the US economy only added 57,000 jobs—far below expectations of 114,000. This is a clear sign of weakening.
The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2% (forecast 4.3%), but it came with a downward revision to May data by -43,000 jobs.
→ The labor market is in an unstable state: figures are weaker than expected, and past data has been downgraded. The Fed will need to consider carefully before deciding on interest rates. Is this the first sign of a recession?
#Pada_Research
🏦 Monetary Policy
• Future US interest rates swing wildly: CME 7M up 33.7% in probability, short Fed fund futures volumes surge 📈
• US 10Y yields shed +2% to 4.47%, this month 2Y TIPS +77.6bp
• Mizuho warning: If the BOJ doesn’t step in → USDJPY is prone to drop toward 170
📊 Macro / Data
• South Korea’s exports in June jump the most in 47 years (1978M10), trade surplus hits a historical high 🚢
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 tops 71,000 (+2.3%) as the Japan services index reaches a 1991 peak 🔥
• US API crude inventories fall -6.07M barrels vs expectations of -4.05M – a big surprise 📉
🛢️ Oil / Energy
• Hormuz stays in the “combat zone” through 9/7; crew members refuse to pass and receive double pay ⚠️
• Trump temporarily settles on not fully targeting Iran, damping the escalation trend
• WTI rebounds to $70 + API drops sharply – buyers breathe easier 📈
💱 FX / Currency
• USDJPY holds at 162.6; speculators expect 170 if the BOJ doesn’t act
• Offshore CNY breaks 6.8, onshore 6.788 – slightly lower but noteworthy
🌍 Geopolitics
• Iran bluntly refuses to meet the US special envoy in Doha, talks stall
• Russia closes 5 railway border checkpoints with Finland, Estonia, and Latvia from 1/7
🔸 $BTC is sticking to the plan only, guys—today’s forecast: the ship sails toward zone 56 or even deeper.
#Pada_Research
• Future US interest rates swing wildly: CME 7M up 33.7% in probability, short Fed fund futures volumes surge 📈
• US 10Y yields shed +2% to 4.47%, this month 2Y TIPS +77.6bp
• Mizuho warning: If the BOJ doesn’t step in → USDJPY is prone to drop toward 170
📊 Macro / Data
• South Korea’s exports in June jump the most in 47 years (1978M10), trade surplus hits a historical high 🚢
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 tops 71,000 (+2.3%) as the Japan services index reaches a 1991 peak 🔥
• US API crude inventories fall -6.07M barrels vs expectations of -4.05M – a big surprise 📉
🛢️ Oil / Energy
• Hormuz stays in the “combat zone” through 9/7; crew members refuse to pass and receive double pay ⚠️
• Trump temporarily settles on not fully targeting Iran, damping the escalation trend
• WTI rebounds to $70 + API drops sharply – buyers breathe easier 📈
💱 FX / Currency
• USDJPY holds at 162.6; speculators expect 170 if the BOJ doesn’t act
• Offshore CNY breaks 6.8, onshore 6.788 – slightly lower but noteworthy
🌍 Geopolitics
• Iran bluntly refuses to meet the US special envoy in Doha, talks stall
• Russia closes 5 railway border checkpoints with Finland, Estonia, and Latvia from 1/7
🔸 $BTC is sticking to the plan only, guys—today’s forecast: the ship sails toward zone 56 or even deeper.
#Pada_Research
💡Note: since there is good news, we will revise this plan $BTC as follows:
Nhận định tuần 4/ T6
🔸 Tomorrow, the US–Iran negotiation round 2.
🔸 Strategy: buy back shares, with $2.55 billion in reserves.
👉 This good news will cause the price to rebound, wiping out short positions and the profit-taking pressure from the Whales (83% are in profit).
🔸 Therefore, the plan will be revised as follows:
🔸 Wait at resistance levels 60800-61700-62700-63700 to SELL
Close all at 65700 for SL.
🔸 TP: 57K-53K depending on when you see enough profit.
🎉 Wishing everyone success and wins!
#Pada_Research
Nhận định tuần 4/ T6
🔸 Tomorrow, the US–Iran negotiation round 2.
🔸 Strategy: buy back shares, with $2.55 billion in reserves.
👉 This good news will cause the price to rebound, wiping out short positions and the profit-taking pressure from the Whales (83% are in profit).
🔸 Therefore, the plan will be revised as follows:
🔸 Wait at resistance levels 60800-61700-62700-63700 to SELL
Close all at 65700 for SL.
🔸 TP: 57K-53K depending on when you see enough profit.
🎉 Wishing everyone success and wins!
#Pada_Research
💡 $BTC candle trimming week quite bad along with selling pressure from Whale, but it still keeps rising, so our plan for this week remains the same:
🔸 Watch for prices in the 60200-61600 zones to SELL down 👉 TP: 57-55K depending on how much profit you can take, then close.
🎉 Wishing everyone a more successful new week, making more money! Want to give feedback? Comment below and let me know.
#Pada_Research
🔸 Watch for prices in the 60200-61600 zones to SELL down 👉 TP: 57-55K depending on how much profit you can take, then close.
🎉 Wishing everyone a more successful new week, making more money! Want to give feedback? Comment below and let me know.
#Pada_Research
💡 BTC still sells as planned, guys!
🔸 It’s expected that today the train will arrive at TP around Monday (T2).
🎉 Wishing everyone a great weekend.
#Pada_Research
🔸 It’s expected that today the train will arrive at TP around Monday (T2).
🎉 Wishing everyone a great weekend.
#Pada_Research
💡News T7 - Sun
🔸 Trump: "At some point, there will no longer be any gentleness."
When talking about the U.S. bombing 3 cities in Iran near the Strait of Hormuz to protect maritime trade.
🔸 Iran’s side:
Urgent warning: IRGC declares deployment of forces
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warns neighboring countries that “restraint has ended,” threatening to attack infrastructure related to the U.S. and Israel in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and with partners, in order to disrupt the region’s oil and gas supply for many years.
🔸 Assessment:
Iran is unlikely to fully block the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, it will continue to exert controlled pressure using drones, missiles, and harassment of shipping. The U.S. responds quickly but within limits, only targeting Iran’s maritime attack capabilities rather than launching a large-scale campaign. The oil market also reacts calmly because it assesses the risk of supply disruption to be lower than expected.
#Pada_Research
🔸 Trump: "At some point, there will no longer be any gentleness."
When talking about the U.S. bombing 3 cities in Iran near the Strait of Hormuz to protect maritime trade.
🔸 Iran’s side:
Urgent warning: IRGC declares deployment of forces
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warns neighboring countries that “restraint has ended,” threatening to attack infrastructure related to the U.S. and Israel in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and with partners, in order to disrupt the region’s oil and gas supply for many years.
🔸 Assessment:
Iran is unlikely to fully block the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, it will continue to exert controlled pressure using drones, missiles, and harassment of shipping. The U.S. responds quickly but within limits, only targeting Iran’s maritime attack capabilities rather than launching a large-scale campaign. The oil market also reacts calmly because it assesses the risk of supply disruption to be lower than expected.
#Pada_Research
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