#CEXvsDEX101 #TrumpTariffs #KouachiSignals $BTC $ETH $BNB 🚀Today's rebound from 104,600.50 carries two key implications:
A test and strong support
The area around 104,600–105,000 constitutes a liquidity point and psychological support (where previous buying activity was concentrated).
A quick rebound from it confirms the strength of this support → means there is sufficient demand at this level to halt selling pressure and initiate a short-term upward correction.
A short-term corrective movement ends
After the decline from 110,000 to 104,600, the price typically undergoes a correction or consolidation wave. A break of the bottom at 104,600 and then a bounce indicates that the downward wave may have concluded, and we have seen the first signs of a bullish reversal (usually we wait for confirmation of a break of the 25/1H EMA or a nearby resistance level).
1. Daily candlestick (1D) chart on the TradingView platform
Open: 107 781.78
High: 108 891.91
Low: 105 322.86
Close: 105 591.75
Volatility: -2.30%
Volume: 15.98 K
Daily pivot levels
PP = (H + L + C) / 3 = (108 891.91 + 105 322.86 + 105 591.75) / 3 ≈ 106 602.17
R1 = 2 PP – L ≈ 107 881.48
R2 = PP + (H – L) ≈ 110 171.22
S1 = 2 PP – H ≈ 104 312.43
S2 = PP – (H – L) ≈ 103 033.12
Fibonacci (from bottom 105,322.86 to top 108,891.91)
38.2% ≈ 106,685.86
50% ≈ 107,107.39
61.8% ≈ 107,527.11
The price closes below the PP and visits the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci area, indicating continued selling pressure before any upward rebound.
2. 4-hour (4H) candle
Close: 105 880.51 (+0.81%)
Indicators:
RSI (14) ~ 45 → Neutral with a slight downward trend.
MACD below zero with lines diverging → Bearish momentum continues.
EMA7/25/99: EMA7 < EMA25 < EMA99 → Downtrend confirmation.
Volume note: Buying volume declined despite a rebound attempt.
3. Hourly candle (1H)
Close: 105 346.33 (-0.14%)
Immediate support/resistance levels:
Support: 105 322 (previous daily low)
Resistance: 105 880 (4H close) then 106 312 (1H EMA25)
RSI1H ~ 50 → Neutral
MACD1H close to bullish crossover → Possible short-term bounce
5. Interpretation of the Recent Decline
Break the pivot point (PP) for a price move towards the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci levels.
MACD divergence below zero reflects continued selling momentum on medium-term charts.
Low volume on rebound attempts → Weak buying pressure.
6. Expectations for the Next Move
Bullish scenario:
Bounce above 106 312 (EMA25 1H) and the 4H high at 105 880 → Retest of PP at 106 602, then R1 = 107 881.
Confirmation with a bullish MACD 1H and RSI 1H > 55.
Bearish scenario:
Break the daily low at 105 322.86 → Target S1 = 104 312, then S2 = 103 033.
Failed support from the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 106 685 → Continuation of the decline. 7. Impactful Economic and Geopolitical News
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