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Daily Fibonacci Levels
We apply a Fibonacci retracement from today's low of 103,752.49 to today's high of 105,866.91:
| Percentage | Approximate Price |
| 0.0% | 105 866.91 (High) |
| 23.6% | 105 349.29 |
| 38.2% | 104 996.46 |
| 50.0% | 104 809.70 |
| 61.8% | 104 622.94 |
| 78.6% | 104 353.15 |
| 100% | 103 752.49 (Low) |
Note that the current price (104,765.48 on 1H) is located between two pivotal levels:
Slightly above the 50% Fibonacci level (≈104,809.70) and
Slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci level (≈104,622.94).
Important support/resistance:
104,996–105,000 Fibonacci 38.2% resistance area.
104,809–104,810 Fibonacci 50% area (currently supporting the price downside).
104,623–104,630 Fibonacci 61.8% area (initial technical support).
Daily Pivot Point (PP) and Support/Resistance Levels
Calculation to the letter:
S1 = 2×104 420.77 – 105 866.91 = 104 841.54 – 105 866.91 = 103 395.63
S2 = PP – (H – L) = 104 420.77 – (105 866.91 – 103 752.49) = 104 420.77 – 2 114.42 = 102 306.35
So:
| Level | Approximate Price |
| PP | 104 420.77 |
| R1 | 105 089.05 |
| R2 | 106 535.19 |
| S1 | 103 395.63 |
| S2 | 102 306.35 |
PP (104 420.77) is currently below the hourly price (104 765.48), supporting the short-term bullish bias.
Immediate resistance: R1 (105 089), then R2 (106 535).
Immediate support: 38.2% Fibonacci (≈104 996–105 000), then PP (104 420), then 61.8% Fibonacci (≈104 623).
4. Technical Indicators
4.1. Relative Strength Index (RSI 14)
Daily (1D) Timeframe:
The daily RSI is closing around 65–70, within the boundary zone between bullish bias and avoiding overbought conditions.
4-Hour (4H) Timeframe:💵
The RSI 4H is declining from around 60 to around 50 after the 4H candle closed at 104, 829.27, indicating that upward pressure is beginning to lose some momentum on this timeframe.
1H Timeframe:💵
The RSI 1H is hovering around 55–58, indicating moderate upward momentum without overbought conditions, maintaining the potential for a short-term upside continuation.
4.2. MACD (12, 26, 9)
1H MACD:
The MACD line is slightly above the signal line, but both are close to zero.
The histogram is slightly positive, indicating mild bullish consolidation.
Expect the two lines to continue to intertwine near zero for a few hours before taking a more pronounced direction (either strongly bullish or bearish).
4H MACD:
The lines are below zero, but they are starting to converge (the histogram is decreasing in negative volume), indicating a decline in selling momentum on the 4H timeframe.
4.3. Moving Averages (EMA 7/25/99)
1H EMA7 is above EMA25 but both are below EMA99:
This indicates that the short-term trend (1H) is somewhat bullish, but the longer-term trend (1D/4H) still needs a close above EMA99 to confirm the strength of the uptrend.
4H EMA7 is below EMA25 and below EMA99 → a medium-term bearish trend.
5. Interpreting the Current Trend
Daily Timeframe (1D)
The daily close is near the high (105,642) after an upward movement that pushed it to break 105,000, reflecting strong buying pressure.
RSI is high around 65–70 → confirms a bullish bias but with a potential correction at the next resistance levels (105,866–106,000).
4-hour (4H) timeframe
The last 4H candle was bearish and closed at 104,829, just below the PP (104,420) → a partial pullback after today's rise.
The reversal from 105,735 down to 104,571 and then a slight bounce indicates that a new bullish confirmation is needed to test 105,700 again.
1-hour (1H) timeframe
Closed at 104,765 after testing 104,997 → reflects a slight bearish hesitation in the last hour.
The price is slightly above the PP (104,420) and the 50% Fibo (104,809) → Clear short-term support is found between 104,420 and 104,800.
6. Expectations for the next 24–48 hours (hourly timeframe)
6.1. Bullish scenario (probability ~45%)
Triggers:
The 1H candle continues trading above the 50% Fibo (≈104,809), with stability above the PP (104,420).
The RSI1H rises towards 65–70, and the MACD1H appears positive and divergent.
Key upside levels:
A breakout of the 105,000–105,100 resistance on the hourly timeframe → increases confidence for testing and surpassing R1 (105,089).
Consecutive Targets:
105 089–105 100 (R1 Daily)
105 866–106 000 (Previous Day's High + 0% Fibonacci for a New Wave)
106 018 (R2 Daily)
Possible Points for a Temporary Correction:
If the price touches 105 089–105 100 and then rebounds, it may visit 104 996 (38.2% Fibonacci) as an initial correction.
If the price steadily exceeds 105 100 for 1H, the uptrend will gain additional momentum towards 106 000.
6.2. Bearish Scenario (~55% Probability)
Triggers:
A break of the 1H support candle at the 50% Fibonacci level (≈104,809) with a red candle and a close below 104,809.
The 1H RSI drops below 50 and the MACD 1H appears negative or negative.
Key Downside Levels:
104,809 (50% Fibonacci) → If broken, it becomes significant support that then turns into resistance.
Successive Targets:
104 508 (Fibo 23.6%)
104 420 (PP Daily)
104 144 (Fibo 38.2%)
103 752 (Daily Low)
103 395 (S1 Daily)
Expectation:
A break of 104 809 and a 1H candle close below it is a strong signal for a continued decline towards 104 508, and possibly to 104 420.
A decline below 104 420 could open the door to testing 104 144–103 752 (lower Fibonacci levels and daily low).
7. Trading Signals (Hourly Timeframe)
7.1. Buy (Long) Trade
| Item | Details
| Entry Condition | 1H candle close above 104 996–105 000 (Fibo 38.2%)
| Entry Point | 105 000
| 1st Target | 105 089 (R1 Daily)
| 2nd Target | 105 866–106 000
| Stop Loss | 104 700 (about 100 pips below Fibo 50%)
| Notes | • When the first target is reached, take partial profit (50%) and move the SL to 105 000. <br>• If the price maintains 105 089 above the 1H candle, the wave can be extended towards 106 018. |
7.2. Short Sale Transaction
| Item | Details
| Entry Condition | 1H candle closes below 104 809 (Fibo 50%) with a red candle with increasing volume |
| Entry Point | 104 800
| 1st Target | 104 508 (Fibo 23.6%)
| 2nd Target | 104 420 (PP Daily)
| Stop Loss | 105 000 (about 200 pips above Fibo 38.2%)
| Notes | • When the first target is reached, take partial profit and move the SL to 104 800. <br>• If 104 420 is broken and a 1H candle appears below it, the decline may extend towards 104 144 and then 103 752. |
Closing Points
Confirm the 1H candle before executing: Whether buying or selling, waiting for the confirmation candle to close is essential to reduce false signals.
Trading Volume:
A buy supported by high buying volume above 105,000 reinforces confidence in an upward move.
A sell accompanied by strong selling volume upon a break of 104,809 confirms continued downward momentum.
News Updates:
Follow any US economic data releases (such as inflation data or a Fed decision); they are likely to suddenly increase Bitcoin volatility.
Cryptocurrency-related news (such as SEC decisions or legislative developments regarding CLARITY) may contribute to immediate buying/selling waves.
Risk Management:
Risk no more than 1–2% of your capital per trade.
Adjust your stop loss when partial targets are reached to protect profits.
Diversify and avoid relying on a single trade, especially with potential high volatility.