Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a turbulent February, with prices falling 22% amid a prolonged corrective phase. However, recent technical analysis suggests the bearish momentum may be subsiding, paving the way for a potential reversal or consolidation phase. Here’s a breakdown of the Elliott Wave structure and key levels to watch.
Elliott Wave Perspective: Corrective Phase Nears Completion
Bitcoin’s price action in February unfolded as part of a broader corrective pattern, labeled as Wave 4 in Elliott Wave Theory. This correction followed an all-time high of $108,364, achieved in early 2025, after which an ABC correction took hold. The decline, which included a sharp five-wave impulsive move to the downside, appears to have concluded near critical support at $94,780. A breach of this level could invalidate the bullish thesis, but holding above it strengthens the case for a Wave 5 breakout.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Support: The $94,780 level remains pivotal. A sustained close above this zone confirms the end of the correction and aligns with the descending channel breakout observed in mid-February.Resistance: If Bitcoin reclaims $100,000, it could signal the start of Wave 5, targeting new highs above $110,000.
Short-Term Outlook
While the long-term trend remains bullish, short-term volatility persists. Traders should monitor the 1-hour chart for signs of bullish momentum, particularly if prices stabilize above $98,000. A failure to hold this level could lead to retesting $94,780.
Historical Context and Projections
Bitcoin’s price history shows resilience, with a recovery to $84,373 by late February 2025 after a steep correction. This aligns with the Elliott Wave expectation of a corrective ABC structure completing before the next bullish impulse.
Conclusion
The February correction may finally be nearing its conclusion, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next major move. Bulls need a decisive breakout above $100,000 to confirm Wave 5, while bears await a breakdown below $94,780 to challenge the bullish narrative. Traders should remain cautious but position for potential volatility ahead.
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