ADP就业数据

On Wednesday, the U.S. ADP employment number for June recorded a decrease of 33,000, lower than the expected 95,000 and the previous value of 37,000. This is the first instance of job contraction since March 2023. This reversal indicates that, even with the Trump administration reducing some extreme tariffs, there are still no signs of improvement in the weak labor market. #ADP就业数据 #小非农增幅创3年多新低

Expected value: +95,000 (the market thinks it can add 95,000 jobs)

Actual value: -33,000 (not only did it not add jobs, but instead laid off 33,000!)

Previous value revision: adjusted from +37,000 to +29,000 (last month was not that good either)

🤯 Market reaction simulation (script version):
The market was originally happily waiting for the "addition of 95,000" as a moderate report card, but the teacher handed out the papers: "You lose 33,000 points!"

→ The whole class (investors) exploded: "What the hell?? Is the economy collapsing?!"

Impact chain on BTC:
Economy is worse than expected:
→ -33,000 vs +95,000 = the actual is nearly 130,000 worse than expected! (Epic disaster 💥)

The Federal Reserve is sweating:
→ Employment collapse = economic recession signal 📉 → Federal Reserve: "No more rate hikes! Quickly prepare to cut rates to put out the fire!"

Funds rush to Bitcoin:
→ Rate cut expectations soar → Dollar deposits are no longer attractive → Hot money floods into high-risk assets!
→ BTC takes off: 📈 "Rise! Keep rising!"

✅ One-sentence conclusion:
This data is a huge positive for BTC! (At least a short-term surge)

Why? Remember the mantra:
The worse the employment → The more rate cuts are needed → The more Bitcoin will benefit (skyrocket)!

⚠️ But! Beware of these pitfalls:
Large funds may "sell off on good news":
→ After the data is released, BTC surges, but institutions may take the opportunity to sell and cash out, so don’t blindly chase the high!

Friday's non-farm payroll is the "ultimate test":
→ ADP is just "small non-farm", the official non-farm data released on Friday (big non-farm) may reverse the narrative!

The market sometimes "operates in reverse":
→ In extreme cases, too poor data may trigger panic selling (thinking the economy is doomed), but the probability is low.

🧠 Operation thoughts (beginner version):
Short-term players: If BTC surges sharply after the data is released, don’t rush to chase it, wait for a pullback to consider.
Long-term players: Just be a spectator, enjoy the show (the data doesn’t change the long-term logic of Bitcoin).
Retail investors beware: Be cautious of price spikes immediately after the data is released (first surge and then plummet, exploding longs and shorts)!

Summary:
This data = gave Bitcoin an adrenaline shot! But how long the effect lasts depends on the Federal Reserve's stance and subsequent data. #ADP就业数据 $BTC

Today's ADP is slightly negative, as this is a precursor to the big non-farm payroll data. This Friday's non-farm payroll may not be very optimistic either. Additionally, the market is relatively weak, so if the non-farm payroll exceeds expectations again, it could be a problem.
#ADP就业数据 #非农就业数据

Let me popularize the impact of ADP employment numbers on the cryptocurrency market:
If the ADP report shows an increase in employment numbers, it will strengthen the US dollar, and investors will withdraw from high-risk assets, leading to a decline in the cryptocurrency market. This is because when the dollar is strong, the appeal of assets like cryptocurrencies decreases. #ADP就业数据