美联储降息25个基点

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September 18th market analysis suggestions

The Federal Reserve will release a summary of its interest rate decision and economic expectations tonight. Jinshi Data Importance Rating: ★★★★★

The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at this meeting. The key question is the extent of the rate cut, whether it will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. According to the latest market forecasts and analysts' views, there are two possibilities. Some analysts believe that the Federal Reserve may take a more cautious approach and cut interest rates by 25 basis points, given that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August showed a slowdown in inflation and some signs of weakness in the job market. However, there is also a view that if retail sales data or other economic indicators perform poorly, the Federal Reserve may consider a larger rate cut of 50 basis points to support economic growth and prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates in its pre-meeting speeches. Federal Reserve officials also revealed their support for rate cuts in their speeches, but the specific extent of the rate cut has not yet been clarified.
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Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: Market Reaction and Future Outlook

In the early hours, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision. The decision aligned with market expectations, cutting rates by 25 basis points. However, this decision was accompanied by a slight market fluctuation.

Firstly, the timing of this announcement comes against the backdrop of a complex and volatile global economic situation. The market generally expected the Federal Reserve to take measures to lower rates to ** the economy, and this decision did not exceed market expectations. Nevertheless, some key statements from Fed Chair Powell had a significant impact on markets such as stocks and gold.

Secondly, Powell emphasized that there may only be two rate cuts next year. This decision sparked market speculation about future monetary policy. This statement deviated from previous expectations of four rate cuts in 2025, leaving the market feeling confused and concerned about the future outlook of monetary policy. This could affect the market's expectations and risk assessments going forward. For investors, this is undoubtedly an important consideration.

Additionally, Powell stated that the Federal Reserve aims to maintain a neutral interest rate, believing that the current economic performance is strong and does not require continuous rate cuts to achieve the goal of inflation moderation. He pointed out that achieving the 2% inflation target will still take one to two years and considered how tariffs impact inflation. This indicates that the Federal Reserve is adapting its policy to the new economic situation and policy environment. At the same time, it reflects a shift in the Federal Reserve's attitude towards reserve policy, emphasizing that reserve policy should be considered and decided upon by the Treasury Department. This statement is significant for understanding the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve and strategic reserve management.

Overall, this Federal Reserve interest rate decision did not exceed expectations, but the market reacted sensitively. Investors need to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's future policy trends and market changes, managing risks and making investment decisions accordingly. Furthermore, as the global economic situation continues to evolve, investors should maintain a cautious and flexible attitude to address market challenges and opportunities.

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Breaking News!

The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by another 25 basis points!

The stock market cheers, and the bond market follows suit!

The Federal Reserve announced a gentle reduction in the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to the range of 4.50%-4.75%. This marks the second consecutive rate cut, perfectly aligning with market expectations! The stock market reacted enthusiastically, continuing to rise; meanwhile, the yield on government bonds also narrowed its decline, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield only dropping by 6.7 basis points, currently reported at 4.358%.

Revealing the Federal Reserve's policy statement: The economy is progressing steadily, but the road ahead remains shrouded in uncertainty!

In its statement, the Federal Reserve indicated that economic activity continues to expand steadily, although there are signs of easing in the labor market, and while the unemployment rate has risen, it still remains low. Inflation is gradually approaching the 2% target, but it is still slightly above the ideal level. The Federal Reserve stated that it will steadfastly pursue maximum employment and a long-term inflation target of 2%, with the risks to current employment and inflation goals being generally balanced.

However, the economic outlook remains filled with uncertainty! The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the risks to its dual mandate and has decided to cut rates again to support its goals. At the same time, the Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities. The Federal Reserve reaffirms its strong commitment: to do everything possible to support maximum employment and restore inflation to the target level of 2%.

In the future, how will the Federal Reserve continue to adjust the federal funds rate? How will it balance the various risks in the economy? Let’s stay tuned!

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Bitcoin has had quite a big fluctuation this time, with interest rates cut, a major drop, and sharp ups and downs! What do you think? Is it not as Dragon Brother said, with ups and downs, not rising to the heavens as you imagined? It's truly a fluctuating market, but thankfully I took a wave and ran away!

Some people ask why there is a big drop despite the interest rate cut; isn't this the operation of capital? The main funds need to break 100,000 to wash out long and short funds. Otherwise, how can they make money, right?!

Many bulls are destined to be liquidated tonight! Watch Dragon Brother rationally, make some profit and then run away, wait for opportunities to enter the market again instead of holding long positions blindly! Just as mentioned in previous articles, being able to open positions is for apprentices, but being able to liquidate is for masters!
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