美联储闭门会议

Currently, it has been discovered that there is a closed-door meeting to discuss the Federal Reserve's discount rate and bank prepayment.

The discount rate is a change made during significant financial issues, while prepayment is an emergency loan and short-term liquidity loan provided through the discount window when banks face financial problems.

Historically, what happened in such meetings:

(1) During the 2008 financial crisis
October 2008 closed-door meeting: The Federal Reserve urgently lowered the discount rate by 50 basis points and expanded the collateral range to alleviate the banking liquidity crisis, briefly boosting market confidence.
Effect: Although the long-term bear market did not change, bank stocks rebounded in the short term.
(2) Impact of COVID-19 in March 2020
March 15th emergency closed-door meeting: The Federal Reserve lowered the discount rate from 1.75% to 0.25% and initiated quantitative easing (QE), leading to a rebound in the U.S. stock market after a sharp decline.
Effect: The S&P 500 rose by approximately 30% in the following month.
(3) Before the September 2024 interest rate meeting
Market 'Pre-FOMC Drift' phenomenon: Historical data shows that stock and bond markets have a high probability of rising during the week of the Federal Reserve meeting (e.g., a surge in U.S. stocks before the September 2024 meeting).
Reason: Investors are betting on dovish signals or policy support.

The possible impact of the closed-door meeting on April 7, 2025:
Current meeting background:
Stock market crash pressure: Trump's tariff policy has caused market turmoil, and the swap market has priced in five interest rate cuts within the year, with expectations of an emergency rate cut next week.
Potential positive scenarios:
If the Federal Reserve lowers the discount rate or releases easing signals, it may drive a short-term rebound in U.S. stocks.
If the situation remains unchanged, the market may fluctuate due to unmet expectations.

Trump: If China does not remove 34% tariffs, a 50% tariff will be imposed starting April 9

U.S. President Trump threatened that if China does not cancel its 34% retaliatory tariffs on American goods, the U.S. will impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese products starting April 9, bringing the total tariff rate to 104%.

Trump stated on social media that if China does not withdraw the 34% tariff by April 8, the U.S. will take action and terminate talks with China, shifting negotiations to other countries.

Since February 4, the U.S. has imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, which was doubled to 20% on March 4, and an additional 34% tariff was announced for April 9. If the threatened 50% tariff by Trump is implemented, Chinese products entering the U.S. will face a total of 117% in tariffs.

In retaliation, China has imposed a 15% tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas since February 10, and a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and other items. Starting March 10, certain U.S. products such as chicken and corn have also been subjected to an additional 10% to 15% tariff, and there are plans to impose an additional 34% tariff on all products originating from the U.S. starting April 10.

Additionally, China has taken several non-tariff measures, including launching antitrust investigations against U.S. companies like Google and Nvidia, placing several U.S. companies on export control and 'unreliable entity lists', restricting trade exchanges, and limiting exports of critical resources like rare earths to the U.S. China is strengthening regulation and retaliatory trade measures from multiple dimensions to cope with ongoing pressure from the U.S.

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I can now be certain that the so-called closed-door meeting will not result in any actions beneficial to the market. To put it bluntly, today's surge in the Nasdaq due to a fake news report shows that the economy is still quite resilient and has a promising future. So why lower interest rates in advance?
Why inject liquidity into the market? #加密市场回调 #美联储闭门会议

#美联储闭门会议 S&P Nasdaq Dow Jones index has retraced to previous highs, the Federal Reserve is meeting, will the high VIX drop provide support?