科普知识

#科普知识
The video released yesterday discussed the explanation of the MA line for Bitcoin. Today, I will explain the close relationship between the MA line and the bullish or bearish outlook in the Bitcoin market based on the four-hour chart over the past few days:
Relative position of short-term MA line and long-term MA line
- As shown in the image below, the yellow line represents the long-term MA line, and the green line represents the short-term MA line. When the short-term MA line crosses above the long-term MA line to form a golden cross (as shown in the image), it is usually a bullish signal, indicating strong upward momentum in Bitcoin prices in the short term, with the market trending positively and bullish forces prevailing, suggesting a consideration for buying or holding.
- When the short-term MA line crosses below the long-term MA line to form a death cross (as shown in the image), it is a bearish signal, indicating a significant downward price trend in the short term, with bearish forces strengthening. At this point, one should be wary of market downside risks and consider selling or reducing positions.
Slope and direction of the MA line
- If the MA line is sloping upward with a steep slope (as seen in the image on March 12, where the Bitcoin price experienced a sharp increase), it indicates that the price of Bitcoin is rising rapidly, with bullish forces continuously pushing the price up, and the market is in a bullish state.
- If the MA line is sloping downward with a steep slope, it indicates that the price is falling rapidly, with bearish forces dominating the market, which is a bearish signal.
- When the MA line is flat or has a small slope (as seen in the image on March 13 in the afternoon), it means that the bullish and bearish forces in the market are relatively balanced, and the price trend is not obvious. At this point, the market is in a wait-and-see state, and one should wait for a clear trend signal before making decisions.
Relationship between price and MA line
- When the Bitcoin price is above the MA line and the MA line is trending upward, it is generally believed that the market is in a bullish trend, and the price is likely to continue rising, which is a bullish signal. This is because the MA line represents the average price over a certain period, and the price being above it indicates that the current market price is above the average level, with bullish forces prevailing.
- When the price is below the MA line and the MA line is trending downward, it indicates that the market is in a bearish trend, and the price may continue to fall, which is a bearish signal. At this point, the market price is below the average level, with strong bearish forces.
It is important to note that the MA line is only a technical analysis tool. The market situation is complex and variable, and one should not rely solely on the MA line to judge the bullish or bearish outlook of the market. A comprehensive analysis should also consider other indicators and fundamental market factors.

【Quick Understanding of MACD】Most classic indicators of technical analysis originate from around 1978-79. Technical analysis primarily provides quantitative auxiliary support. As a forecasting tool, they have a certain degree of lag: the image is a note from 7 years ago, and one usually starts learning from basic financial knowledge, gradually sharing some tips if one is interested. 🍻

MACD=2x（DIF-DEA）

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, and the last word is actually most closely related to psychological trading. Divergence types are like the changes in one meal being easy, while changes in a week's diet might be more regular over a month. Therefore, the longer the cycle, the more accurate this indicator reflects the quantitative patterns within that cycle.

The downside of MACD is that it has a certain degree of lag, so it often fails in short terms during volatile markets. The crossing of long-term indicators (gold, death) may provide a certain degree of signal.

PS.【Key Reminder: ⭐️ All technical analysis indicators can only serve as references; the root cause of many institutions going bankrupt in quantitative trading is their excessive obsession with mathematics 🧮. However, investment actually has a very decisive 5% human factor, such as Trump's emotions, which is difficult to assess mathematically for prediction.】

$BTC $LAYER $NEAR #科普知识 #加密市场反弹 #比特币市值排名 @币安广场

There are too many self-proclaimed 'experts' everywhere, who, knowing little, love to mislead beginners.
I’ve had enough of this chaos—someone needs to step up and do some real educational content.
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Too many self-proclaimed “experts” out there misleading newbies while knowing next to nothing themselves.
I’m done watching the chaos—time to step in and do some real educating.
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#科普知识

Why do people often focus on that profit-loss ratio?

The profit-loss ratio is important, but trading is a balance of profit-loss ratio, win rate, and position size.

A win rate of 100% does not guarantee that the next trade will be profitable.

With a constant position size, the profit-loss ratio multiplied by the win rate must be greater than 0.5 to make a profit (ignoring fees and slippage).

If I open a position of 100 units with a profit-loss ratio of 1:1, my win rate must be over 50% to make a profit (in reality, it needs to be higher than 50% when accounting for fees).

If I open a position of 100 units with a profit-loss ratio of 2:1, my win rate only needs to be above 25% to make a profit.

It's surprising that some people still don't understand such a simple concept.

The so-called trading system is about achieving a balance among these three factors, and there are countless ways to achieve this balance, which is why everyone's trading system is different. You should refine your trading system based on your personal character.

#科普知识