政策环境
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The next event that could profoundly impact cryptocurrency prices and generate severe volatility is approaching!
In the past few days, over 800,000 federal employees of the U.S. government have quietly packed their desks— their salaries will stop being paid in 7 days!
The iron gates of national parks are about to be locked, and even new drug clinical trials for cancer patients may be forced to halt. This is not a plot from a Hollywood disaster movie, but the reality of the 22nd shutdown crisis of the U.S. federal government.
During the 35-day shutdown at the end of 2018, the Nasdaq index actually rose by 12% against the trend, and the unemployment rate remained below 4%. Goldman Sachs analysts dug up data since 1976: for every day the government is shut down, the S&P 500 tends to gain an average of 0.5% the following year.
However, this year’s overall crisis is completely different from that of 2018, with trade war tariffs still unresolved, tech stock earnings reports frequently disappointing, and the VIX fear index skyrocketing by 35%. Some hedge fund managers privately complain: "Buying options now is like bidding on folding chairs on the Titanic's deck."
The most troubling aspect of this crisis is that the Democrats have suffered too much from Trump’s policies, and currently, retaliation outweighs consideration of people's livelihoods. Both parties know that a shutdown will lower GDP, damage international credibility, and exacerbate social tensions, but when the political gain of “making the opponent take the blame” exceeds national interests, rationality gives way to calculation. Just like the shutdown in 2013, which ultimately ended with a decline in approval ratings for both parties, but politicians seem to never learn their lesson.
This major earthquake is just 7 days away and may even begin to ferment earlier. We all know that in the face of systemic risk, there are never truly any bystanders.
#美股大跌 #加密市场观察 #政策环境
In the past few days, over 800,000 federal employees of the U.S. government have quietly packed their desks— their salaries will stop being paid in 7 days!
The iron gates of national parks are about to be locked, and even new drug clinical trials for cancer patients may be forced to halt. This is not a plot from a Hollywood disaster movie, but the reality of the 22nd shutdown crisis of the U.S. federal government.
During the 35-day shutdown at the end of 2018, the Nasdaq index actually rose by 12% against the trend, and the unemployment rate remained below 4%. Goldman Sachs analysts dug up data since 1976: for every day the government is shut down, the S&P 500 tends to gain an average of 0.5% the following year.
However, this year’s overall crisis is completely different from that of 2018, with trade war tariffs still unresolved, tech stock earnings reports frequently disappointing, and the VIX fear index skyrocketing by 35%. Some hedge fund managers privately complain: "Buying options now is like bidding on folding chairs on the Titanic's deck."
The most troubling aspect of this crisis is that the Democrats have suffered too much from Trump’s policies, and currently, retaliation outweighs consideration of people's livelihoods. Both parties know that a shutdown will lower GDP, damage international credibility, and exacerbate social tensions, but when the political gain of “making the opponent take the blame” exceeds national interests, rationality gives way to calculation. Just like the shutdown in 2013, which ultimately ended with a decline in approval ratings for both parties, but politicians seem to never learn their lesson.
This major earthquake is just 7 days away and may even begin to ferment earlier. We all know that in the face of systemic risk, there are never truly any bystanders.
#美股大跌 #加密市场观察 #政策环境
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The Chinese stock market may see a rebound around the end of January.
Analysts including Wendy Liu from JPMorgan wrote in a report on January 10 that as the U.S. policy towards China and China's responses become clearer, the Chinese stock market is expected to experience a turnaround around the end of January. Consumer spending during the Spring Festival, macroeconomic data for January and February to be released in mid-March, quarterly performance reports from listed companies for last year's fourth quarter, and a new round of stimulus policies may all impact the stock market.
In summary, there are four reasons: 1. Sino-U.S. relations are becoming clearer, reducing market uncertainty. 2. A recovery in consumer spending during the Spring Festival benefits related industries. 3. If economic data and fourth-quarter financial reports perform well, it will boost market confidence. 4. Potential stimulus policies, such as infrastructure investment or monetary easing, may invigorate the economy and stock market. Overall, these factors may drive BTC up. #政策环境
Analysts including Wendy Liu from JPMorgan wrote in a report on January 10 that as the U.S. policy towards China and China's responses become clearer, the Chinese stock market is expected to experience a turnaround around the end of January. Consumer spending during the Spring Festival, macroeconomic data for January and February to be released in mid-March, quarterly performance reports from listed companies for last year's fourth quarter, and a new round of stimulus policies may all impact the stock market.
In summary, there are four reasons: 1. Sino-U.S. relations are becoming clearer, reducing market uncertainty. 2. A recovery in consumer spending during the Spring Festival benefits related industries. 3. If economic data and fourth-quarter financial reports perform well, it will boost market confidence. 4. Potential stimulus policies, such as infrastructure investment or monetary easing, may invigorate the economy and stock market. Overall, these factors may drive BTC up. #政策环境
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Experts suggest that my country's existing "prohibition-style" virtual currency transaction supervision should be adjusted appropriately, because it limits our ability to compete in the development of the global web3.0 industry!
Alas
Originally we were far ahead, but now we have to catch up with the others...
However, it is a good thing to have such rumors, so we will wait and see.
#政策环境 #Web3 #监管框架
$BTC
Alas
Originally we were far ahead, but now we have to catch up with the others...
However, it is a good thing to have such rumors, so we will wait and see.
#政策环境 #Web3 #监管框架
$BTC
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