#市场调整後的机会? The more chaotic the market becomes, the more we need to remain calm. Here are my personal thoughts on the current market situation:
1. Has the bull market ended?
The most important reason for the rise since November 6 is the favorable expectations for cryptocurrency policies brought about by Trump's election victory. The continuation of the upward trend next year will mainly depend on the more favorable policies towards cryptocurrencies after Trump takes office, including a more lenient regulatory framework and BTC strategic reserves. This main storyline has not changed, so the bull market is likely to continue. However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the degree of expectation for the realization of favorable policies for cryptocurrencies after Trump takes office, as this could lead to the end of the bull market.
2. Why has BTC fallen in the past couple of days?
The direct reason is that the Federal Reserve's statements last night were more hawkish than the market expected. However, this level of expectation for a reduction in interest rate cuts by 2025 has long been anticipated by the market; this time, the dot plot forecast is only one less than the market expectation. Logically, this should not lead to such a severe pullback. If it has happened, it can only be attributed to the excessive panic in the market combined with the liquidation of positions by some large players, leading to a chain reaction. However, past experiences have shown that panic-driven declines will eventually rebound.
3. What’s going on with altcoins? Will there still be an altcoin season?
Altcoins have been the hardest hit these days. A few days ago, while Bitcoin surged, altcoins did not rise and even fell. But if we look back at the rise in early November, Bitcoin initially surged alone, draining the market, and the market was filled with sorrow. However, once Bitcoin breaks through key levels and capital overflows, altcoins will start to perform. Therefore, as long as Bitcoin can maintain its upward trend, there will definitely be an altcoin season. This is because profit-taking capital will inevitably overflow; it is human nature and the essence of any financial market's operation. Even in a strong market like the U.S. stock market, we see that when the Nasdaq rises significantly, the Russell 2000 small-cap stocks will also catch up.
4. When will the altcoin season come?
When Bitcoin breaks through key price levels and temporarily rests in a sideways trend, altcoins will explode. At present, it seems likely that this will be at the key levels. Previously it was 100,000, and the next should be 110,000, 120,000, 130,000, etc. If the expectation is that this round of the bull market will peak at 150,000, then altcoins will have four more opportunities to explode, but the risks will increase as we get later in the cycle. Altcoins should still prioritize strong sector leaders; based on previous gains, meme coins, public chains, DeFi, and RWA are relatively strong tracks.