多空趋势指数
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📉 $BTC （2025-06-02 07:00）｜#多空趋势指数 ：41 / 100（Slightly Weak Consolidation）
Short-term rebound momentum weakens, medium-term moving average resistance, still within a downward channel
🔹 Multi-timeframe K-line trend assessment：
• 15-minute chart: Continuous rise followed by consolidation, short-term momentum slows, price under MA99 resistance;
• 1-hour chart: Bottom rebound significantly resisted by MA99, short-term rebound may be nearing its end;
• 4-hour chart: MACD golden cross but has not exited the downward structure, rebound remains a weak recovery;
• Daily chart: Still in a high-level consolidation pullback structure, price has not reclaimed the 25-day moving average;
• Weekly chart: Last week's large bearish candle pullback has not stabilized, long-term structure remains weak.
📈 Technical indicators observation：
1. MACD: Multi-timeframe low-level golden cross, rebound momentum initially appears, but red bars lack sustainability;
2. RSI: 1H and 4H charts are close to overbought, short-term adjustment pressure gradually emerges;
3. Moving average system: All timeframe moving averages are arranged bearishly, 4H/1H/15m are all under MA99 resistance;
4. Trading volume: Rebound volume gradually shrinks, insufficient momentum to support sustained rises.
🌐 Brief macro news summary (including sources)：
1. Mt.Gox confirms it will return 140,000 BTC in early July (Source: The Block, 2025-06-01);
2. US PCE data fell short of expectations, triggering short-term market hedging (Source: CNBC, 2025-05-31);
3. Active addresses on the Bitcoin chain decreased by 10% (Source: Glassnode, 2025-06-01);
4. ETF fund inflows have been negative for five consecutive days, institutions pause increases (Source: CoinShares, 2025-06-01).
Conclusion: The current rebound lacks bullish volume, significantly resisted by medium to long-term moving averages, the market tends to present a high-selling window during weak rebounds. If unable to break through 106800 with increased volume, a bearish consolidation structure will be maintained. Risk control is a priority, cautious on the left side chasing longs.
Short-term rebound momentum weakens, medium-term moving average resistance, still within a downward channel
🔹 Multi-timeframe K-line trend assessment：
• 15-minute chart: Continuous rise followed by consolidation, short-term momentum slows, price under MA99 resistance;
• 1-hour chart: Bottom rebound significantly resisted by MA99, short-term rebound may be nearing its end;
• 4-hour chart: MACD golden cross but has not exited the downward structure, rebound remains a weak recovery;
• Daily chart: Still in a high-level consolidation pullback structure, price has not reclaimed the 25-day moving average;
• Weekly chart: Last week's large bearish candle pullback has not stabilized, long-term structure remains weak.
📈 Technical indicators observation：
1. MACD: Multi-timeframe low-level golden cross, rebound momentum initially appears, but red bars lack sustainability;
2. RSI: 1H and 4H charts are close to overbought, short-term adjustment pressure gradually emerges;
3. Moving average system: All timeframe moving averages are arranged bearishly, 4H/1H/15m are all under MA99 resistance;
4. Trading volume: Rebound volume gradually shrinks, insufficient momentum to support sustained rises.
🌐 Brief macro news summary (including sources)：
1. Mt.Gox confirms it will return 140,000 BTC in early July (Source: The Block, 2025-06-01);
2. US PCE data fell short of expectations, triggering short-term market hedging (Source: CNBC, 2025-05-31);
3. Active addresses on the Bitcoin chain decreased by 10% (Source: Glassnode, 2025-06-01);
4. ETF fund inflows have been negative for five consecutive days, institutions pause increases (Source: CoinShares, 2025-06-01).
Conclusion: The current rebound lacks bullish volume, significantly resisted by medium to long-term moving averages, the market tends to present a high-selling window during weak rebounds. If unable to break through 106800 with increased volume, a bearish consolidation structure will be maintained. Risk control is a priority, cautious on the left side chasing longs.
📉 $BTC （2025-06-01 08:00）｜Long/Short Trend Index: 34 / 100 (Bearish Downward)
Short-term rebound exhaustion, rebound angle is weak, overall structure remains bearish.
🔹 Multi-Period K-Line Trend Judgment:
15-Minute Chart: Moving averages in bearish arrangement, rebound momentum exhausted, weak oscillation;
1-Hour Chart: A short-term bottom divergence rebound occurs, but MA25/99 still has strong pressure, not yet reversed;
4-Hour Chart: Downward trend from 112K high point is clear, current weak rebound is in the middle of the downward channel;
Daily Chart: MACD death cross downward continues, three consecutive days of closing in the red, bullish momentum shrinking;
Weekly Chart: Last week's high and fall formed a long upper shadow bearish candle, this week is under pressure for confirmation.
📈 Technical Indicator Observation:
1. MACD: Multi-period death cross, bearish momentum continues to be released;
2. RSI: All below 50, short period has a slight rebound but has not escaped the weak zone;
3. Moving Average System: 15m/1H/4H are all in bearish arrangement, clear suppression;
4. Trading Volume: During the rebound process, volume did not follow up, indicating a lack of sustained buying support.
🌐 Macroeconomic Brief (Including Sources):
1. Mt.Gox compensation progress reported to start repayments in July (Source: CoinDesk, May 30);
2. US SEC again delays decision on spot ETH ETF application (Source: The Block, May 31);
3. US core PCE data exceeds expectations, interest rate hike expectations rise (Source: CNBC, May 31);
4. BTC on-chain active addresses and transaction volume have declined for five consecutive days (Source: Glassnode, May 31).
As mentioned earlier, multi-period trends are bearish, rebound angle is weak, it is currently not advisable to easily catch the bottom; it is better to remain in cash or light positions and wait for a clearer strong structure before taking action. It is crucial to pay attention to the support zone of 103K~102K, and once it breaks below, it may accelerate downward.
Short-term rebound exhaustion, rebound angle is weak, overall structure remains bearish.
🔹 Multi-Period K-Line Trend Judgment:
15-Minute Chart: Moving averages in bearish arrangement, rebound momentum exhausted, weak oscillation;
1-Hour Chart: A short-term bottom divergence rebound occurs, but MA25/99 still has strong pressure, not yet reversed;
4-Hour Chart: Downward trend from 112K high point is clear, current weak rebound is in the middle of the downward channel;
Daily Chart: MACD death cross downward continues, three consecutive days of closing in the red, bullish momentum shrinking;
Weekly Chart: Last week's high and fall formed a long upper shadow bearish candle, this week is under pressure for confirmation.
📈 Technical Indicator Observation:
1. MACD: Multi-period death cross, bearish momentum continues to be released;
2. RSI: All below 50, short period has a slight rebound but has not escaped the weak zone;
3. Moving Average System: 15m/1H/4H are all in bearish arrangement, clear suppression;
4. Trading Volume: During the rebound process, volume did not follow up, indicating a lack of sustained buying support.
🌐 Macroeconomic Brief (Including Sources):
1. Mt.Gox compensation progress reported to start repayments in July (Source: CoinDesk, May 30);
2. US SEC again delays decision on spot ETH ETF application (Source: The Block, May 31);
3. US core PCE data exceeds expectations, interest rate hike expectations rise (Source: CNBC, May 31);
4. BTC on-chain active addresses and transaction volume have declined for five consecutive days (Source: Glassnode, May 31).
As mentioned earlier, multi-period trends are bearish, rebound angle is weak, it is currently not advisable to easily catch the bottom; it is better to remain in cash or light positions and wait for a clearer strong structure before taking action. It is crucial to pay attention to the support zone of 103K~102K, and once it breaks below, it may accelerate downward.
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