U.S. economic data released in July: Analysis of the probability of impact on the cryptocurrency market 📊💹
U.S. economic data for July released today showed that inflationary pressures have eased and consumer spending remains healthy. Let’s analyze the impact this data may have on the cryptocurrency market and its probabilities:
1. The core PCE price index annual rate was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7%:
• Ease inflationary pressure and reduce expectations of interest rate hikes
→ Probability of benefiting the cryptocurrency market: 65% 📈
2. The monthly rate of personal expenditures reached 0.5%, in line with expectations:
• Shows consumer confidence remains strong
→ Probability of boosting confidence in risky assets: 60% 🌟
3. The monthly core PCE price index remained at 0.2%, in line with market expectations:
• Inflation trend stable
→ The probability of the market maintaining the status quo: 55% ⚖️
Potential impact analysis:
• Fed policy turns dovish:
→ Occurrence probability: 55%
→ Probability of favoring cryptocurrencies: 70% 🚀
• USD weakening expected:
→ Formation probability: 60%
→ Probability of promoting the rise of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin: 65% 💰
• Increased investor risk appetite:
→ Occurrence probability: 58%
→ Probability of stimulating cryptocurrency demand: 62% 📈
Overall market trend forecast:
Chance of increase: 60% 📈
Chance of falling: 40% 📉
Risk factors:
• Geopolitical uncertainty: 45% chance of affecting the market 🌍
• Regulatory policy changes: 50% chance of affecting the market ⚖️
• Technical resistance: 55% chance of affecting short-term trend 📊
Comprehensive analysis:
In the short term, there is a 60% probability that the cryptocurrency market will trend upward. However, given the multiple uncertainties, investors should remain vigilant and pay close attention to subsequent economic data and policy signals.
Keep in mind that crypto markets are highly volatile, and there is significant downside risk even in an overall positive environment. Be sure to do comprehensive risk management.
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