利率政策

"Short" Economic Analysis - What Consequences Does Yen Rate Hike Bring?
📈【Yen Rate Hike is Here, What Will It Bring?】
1⃣ Signal of the End of the Era of Ultra-Low Global Interest Rates
2⃣ Capital Flowing Back to Japan, Negative for US Treasuries and Emerging Markets
3⃣ Carry Trade Weakens, Global Liquidity Tightens
4⃣ Yen Appreciation is Unfavorable for Japanese Exports
5⃣ Global Risk Assets May Come Under Pressure, Including US Stocks and Crypto
⚠ It's not just the Yen that's rising; it's a crack in the entire financial landscape.
#日元 #加息 #宏观经济 #利率政策 #Crypto宏观

With Trump back in power, the direction of economic policy undoubtedly has a profound impact on the market. Interest rates and inflation will become the focal points of future market games. The following discussion will explore the future we are about to face from the perspectives of interest rate cuts and inflation, cryptocurrency, and market reflexivity, allowing for layered consumption~

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Interest Rate Cuts and Inflation: The Game of Expectations and Reality
Traditionally, interest rate cuts are tools to stimulate economic growth, but in the current economic environment, the market's response to interest rate cuts has become complicated.

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In traditional views, interest rate cuts usually lower borrowing costs, stimulate investment and consumption, thereby driving the stock market up.

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However, against a backdrop of high inflation, interest rate cuts may lead to excessive money supply, thereby exacerbating inflationary pressures.

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Now, the market no longer simply sees interest rate cuts as a positive signal for economic stimulation, but rather as a potential negative factor that may exacerbate inflation.

2️⃣
Market Reflexivity Shift: A Dramatic Change in Expectations (The Future of BTC and US Stocks)

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If the Federal Reserve decides to stop interest rate cuts, and the market reacts positively (the stock market does not fall, but even rises), this may indicate a shift from reliance on interest rate cuts to confidence in robust economic growth.

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At this point, the market may enter a recovery phase, with US stocks expected to gradually rebound and eventually reach new highs, while the cryptocurrency market, free from external adverse factors, will also welcome the anticipated festive season.

#Macroeconomic Political Analysis
Review: The first interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in July triggered significant turmoil in global financial markets, leading to a sharp collapse of risk assets such as Bitcoin in early August. The upcoming interest rate decision for the yen on October 31 has drawn widespread attention from the market.

Currently, the United States is facing a severe national debt crisis, and the yen's interest rate hike has narrowed the interest rate differential between the US and Japan. This change could exacerbate the economic difficulties in the US and even trigger the risk of long-term stagflation. The interest rate hike in Japan signifies the country's gradual departure from ultra-low interest rate policies, which will have a significant impact on the flow of global capital. The narrowing of the US-Japan interest rate differential will render the international capital arbitrage model a thing of the past.

In this situation, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy needs to be more cautious to avoid further exacerbating the risk of capital outflows. This also means that the pace of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may accelerate to address capital outflows and stagflation pressures. However, rapid interest rate cuts could trigger market instability, which will have far-reaching implications for the future political landscape in the US, especially concerning Trump, who may return to the political arena.

#Yen Interest Rate Hike #Federal Reserve #Macroeconomics #利率政策