#宏观经济
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Interest rates, exchange rates, and asset prices
##宏观经济 #交易 #BTC走势分析 #降息预期
A normal country is not a closed economy; foreign investment, international trade, and capital flows are major influences on that country.
1. What determines a country's asset prices?
Determined by profit and discount rate, where profit divided by discount rate is a macro concept. For companies, it refers to net profit or EPS, and the discount rate is the actual cost of funds, which can be represented by the real interest rate or simplistically considered as the nominal interest rate, similar to the PE concept.
2. In the absence of foreign investment interference.
A reduction in profits with the central bank still tightening policy is rather rare, but if we consider that the capital markets trade on expectations, then the US stock market at the end of 2018 was close to this situation—rising unemployment rate with the Federal Reserve still raising interest rates. If there are no special circumstances constraining the central bank's actions, it should enter a rate-cutting cycle to support economic growth.
A normal country is not a closed economy; foreign investment, international trade, and capital flows are major influences on that country.
1. What determines a country's asset prices?
Determined by profit and discount rate, where profit divided by discount rate is a macro concept. For companies, it refers to net profit or EPS, and the discount rate is the actual cost of funds, which can be represented by the real interest rate or simplistically considered as the nominal interest rate, similar to the PE concept.
2. In the absence of foreign investment interference.
A reduction in profits with the central bank still tightening policy is rather rare, but if we consider that the capital markets trade on expectations, then the US stock market at the end of 2018 was close to this situation—rising unemployment rate with the Federal Reserve still raising interest rates. If there are no special circumstances constraining the central bank's actions, it should enter a rate-cutting cycle to support economic growth.
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