Bitcoin (BTC) traded at approximately $106,445 on Wednesday, May 21, maintaining momentum just 2.4% below its all-time high, after briefly topping $107,000 in U.S. trading hours the day before. While traditional financial markets often follow the seasonal adage "Sell in May and go away," analysts say Bitcoin may break from that pattern, fueled by strong institutional inflows, regulatory optimism, and macro-political catalysts.

ETF Inflows and Corporate Adoption Push Bitcoin Higher

According to Paul Howard, Director at crypto trading firm Wincent, the combination of spot Bitcoin ETF demand, corporate treasury allocations, and a supportive U.S. regulatory environment is positioning BTC to potentially reach new all-time highs in the weeks ahead.

“As we get into the European summer months, the sense is it's more likely a case of ‘buy in May and go away,’” Howard said in a market commentary.

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $667 million in net inflows on Monday, bringing total May inflows to $3.3 billion, according to SoSoValue. This consistent inflow trend underscores persistent institutional demand, even as BTC nears historical resistance levels.

In addition, companies are following in the footsteps of MicroStrategy (MSTR) by acquiring Bitcoin through debt and equity financing strategies, increasing long-term institutional exposure to the asset.

Crypto Market Cap Nears $4 Trillion

Howard highlighted that the total crypto market capitalization, which currently stands at $3.3 trillion (per TradingView), is on track to reach $4 trillion—a psychological and structural milestone that could drive further bullish sentiment.

“As we edge closer to a $4 trillion market cap for digital assets, we will see BTC cross all-time-highs,” Howard added.

Summer Macro Events May Disrupt Seasonality

Historically, summer months tend to be slower for crypto markets, but analysts at Kaiko note that a convergence of macroeconomic and political developments could generate volatility, possibly accelerating Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

Key events include:

The Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision in June, which could shift monetary policy expectations.

The July 9 tariff deadline from former President Donald Trump’s economic policy platform, which may affect global risk sentiment and asset allocation.

These developments could act as macro catalysts, altering investor behavior and liquidity flows across asset classes, including crypto.

Bitcoin Options Market Signals Anticipated Breakout

Data from Kaiko further reveals that Bitcoin options traders are positioning for a breakout, with elevated open interest at $110,000 and $120,000 strike prices for contracts expiring on June 27. The volume concentration at these levels signals growing market conviction in the probability of BTC establishing new record highs by early summer.

Momentum Builds as BTC Nears Key Levels

With Bitcoin trading at $106,445, just short of its historical peak, analysts see a window of opportunity driven by ETF inflows, corporate adoption, and market structure dynamics. Should current trends persist and macro conditions align, Bitcoin could enter a price discovery phase, pushing well beyond its previous highs and leading the broader digital asset market into new territory.